Boulder for Obama

Looking at only South Boulder, Obama is cleaning up contributions from the South Boulder zip code. For those puzzled bloggers who don't understand who Boulder is and what its all abouts, these numbers are more revealing than listening to the same whiners that blog on the Camera web page. (people on the Camera blog may vote, but they are total fringe in the community)

Let's look at Hillary. Her numbers for south boulder are not as strong . Hill has about $8100 in contributions from:

1 Ahn, Natalie Boulder CO 80305 Information Requested $500

2 Deetz, Stanley Boulder CO 80305 University Of Colorado $500

3 Hartley, Judy Boulder CO 80305 Self employed $500

4 Heath, Josephine Boulder CO 80305 The Community Foundation $1,000

5 Heath, Josephine Boulder CO 80305 The Community Foundation $1,300

6 Heath, Stratton Boulder CO 80305 Self employed $500

7 Johnson, Rita Boulder CO 80305 Raymond James & Assoc $35

8 Johnson, Rita Boulder CO 80305 Raymond James & Assoc $500

9 Mandell, Victoria Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $500

10 Mandell, Victoria Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $100

11 Martin, James Boulder CO 80305 City Of Boulder $500

12 Martin, James Boulder CO 80305 City Of Boulder $25

13 Mccue, Ann Boulder CO 80305 Longmont United Hospital $101

14 Mccue, Ann Boulder CO 80305 Longmont United Hospital $500

15 Noonan, Carrie Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $500

16 Reynolds, William Boulder CO 80305 Next Century Software $50

17 Reynolds, William Boulder CO 80305 Next Century Software $50

18 Rosenthal, Diane Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $500


Obama has 49 contributors for a total of $13,000, including two people that maxed out their contributions.

The 80302 zip code is even more for Obama. He had 121 contributors, compared to 49 for Hillary. These results are probably going to mirror the caucus pretty closely, with Boulder's upper classes voting for Obama in big numbers.

Ron Paul continues attracted three contributors in the Boulder area, but they all gave big, for a total over $3,000.

David Thielin gave nothing to no one. Jerk.

Boulder for Obama?

Its going to be a wild caucus in Boulder on February 5. With a neck and neck presidential campaign, who will win Boulder. Conventional wisdom is that rich liberals, that is us, will vote for Obama. Obama is the Paul Tsongas, Howard Dean or this election, but black, so he gets the upper class vote, which is what Boulder is all about.

But super strong Democratic women organization in Boulder will continue to partially back Hillary. So expect some strong Hillary support; however, I would be surprised if Hillary won more than one or two precincts in Boulder.

In Boulder, each precinct will only have four to seven delegates. So the delegates will likely split pretty evenly in each precinct. It will be tough for any individual to be elected delegate in a particular caucus, because both Hillary and Obama camps will want their people in. In 2004, lots of Kucinich people (well maybe 20) got to go to the county convention, because, there were plenty of spots. This is unlikely to happen, and Edwards and Dennis will be shut out of the county convention to a great extent.

East county and Longmont should make it up for Hillary.

The State convention should be even more interesting. With only 54 delegates going to the national convention, the split between the two camps will be pretty close

Edwards-no campaign in Colorado - convention

The John Edwards campaign has been nearly invisible in Boulder, which does not bode well for the February 5, 2008 caucus. While both Obama and Clinton have been calling registered caucus voters (ie, only Democrats, in Colorado, independents do not caucus) on an almost daily basis, I have received no calls from Edwards, and there is really no place for supporters to volunteer. Edwards is running for the number two spot, but he doesn't have the money to sustain a campaign if he does not win in NH or SC, which won't happen. So Clinton, even coming in three in NH, will still go on.

This means it really is Clinton v. Obama on February 5. Clinton will probably loose NH and SC, though she might win Nevada, and maybe even Florida. Even loosing all four, she will stick around for super tuesday, and will try and win CA and NY. Super Tuesday, with over 1600 delegates selected, will be the deciding day for the nomination. The tide will be against Clinton, but a win in NY or CA on super Tuesday would wipe out any advantage that Obama may have by his early wins. The conventional wisdom is that the winner of IA and NH wins the nomination, but super Tuesday is big, and Clinton will have plenty of time to go negative on Obama before the big vote. If Clinton wins CA and NY, she gets the nomination, regardless of her losses in the small states, because her losses is the small states will be relatively close, delegate wise.

So, prediction, brokered convention with Clinton and Obama.

Iowa caucus results

Results look to be pretty certain.

Clinton - 29%
Obama - 38%
Edwards 30%
Richardson - 2%