Edwards-no campaign in Colorado - convention

The John Edwards campaign has been nearly invisible in Boulder, which does not bode well for the February 5, 2008 caucus. While both Obama and Clinton have been calling registered caucus voters (ie, only Democrats, in Colorado, independents do not caucus) on an almost daily basis, I have received no calls from Edwards, and there is really no place for supporters to volunteer. Edwards is running for the number two spot, but he doesn't have the money to sustain a campaign if he does not win in NH or SC, which won't happen. So Clinton, even coming in three in NH, will still go on.

This means it really is Clinton v. Obama on February 5. Clinton will probably loose NH and SC, though she might win Nevada, and maybe even Florida. Even loosing all four, she will stick around for super tuesday, and will try and win CA and NY. Super Tuesday, with over 1600 delegates selected, will be the deciding day for the nomination. The tide will be against Clinton, but a win in NY or CA on super Tuesday would wipe out any advantage that Obama may have by his early wins. The conventional wisdom is that the winner of IA and NH wins the nomination, but super Tuesday is big, and Clinton will have plenty of time to go negative on Obama before the big vote. If Clinton wins CA and NY, she gets the nomination, regardless of her losses in the small states, because her losses is the small states will be relatively close, delegate wise.

So, prediction, brokered convention with Clinton and Obama.