Accurate prediction yet again

Unlike Rush Limbaugh/Ron Paul pretender Democrat David Thielen, RLB correctly predicts that the candidate to get 15,000 votes wins th 2 CD primary.

I didn't predict Joan would loose, but given her poor campaign and lack of presence in Boulder, its not a shock. Looking for theories for why should lost heavy union area Adams County.

Jared spent over $300 per vote. Hope his new hobby is worth it.

Rollie wins

With early mail in votes candidate, Rollie wins easily. Cindy proves being nasty costs you an election. These results are not likely going to change, 1200 votes is to many to make up.

Cindy Carlisle 3,686 43% 40%

Rollie Heath 4,883 57% 53%
______

Jared is winning Boulder by 300 and loosing Jefferson by 100. Denver post is showing him with 800 vote lead, which should be enough for him to win. Mountain counties could give this to Joan, but she is probably only looking at less than a 1000 voters in each county. I assume that Joan campaigned heavily in the mountains knowing that Boulder would split. But her poor campaign probably cost her.

Will is out, he could have cost Jared the election by the 500 votes Jared needs to win.

Cindy v Rollie

This election was Cindy's to loose and she is doing a pretty good job of it. No endorsements from anyone of note, a crappy campaign, and a crabby personality. But Cindy may still be able to pull it off. Why? While politicians have universally endorsed Rollie, Cindy still has support of Democratic Women and core downtown people to get the votes she needs to win. While some have pealed off, their strength is so overwhelming in the district, its probably enough for her to win.

Rollie's only chance was to run a good campaign, which he did. He walked the entire district and met plenty of voters.

It takes 3500 votes to win the nomination.

Too close to call. How about Cindy 3800, Rollie 3300

Or: Rollie 3650; Cindy 3400.

Talk about covering my bases.

100% accurate election prediction.

Real liberal Boulder correctly predicted all seven city council seats last November (though I missed the order of finish). Can I do it again. Of course! But this is much much tougher than the city council, because the forces at work are completely different.

Dummy libertarian David Thielen thinks Boulder has political elite that directs it. It does, but it doesn't work the way that rightie Thielen thinks it does. First, the newspaper in this town are not part of the political elite, the paper is quite to the right of the political elite in Boulder. Second, the political elite is not some kind of patronage network as Shaun Coleman thinks (which is why he is an utter failure as a city council candidate). This is a small town you two dumb guys, people know each other, and the political forces are shaped by Open Space politics, the neighborhoods, (especially (1) downtown and the Hill and (2) Table Mesa and Martin Acres), Democratic Women, and the University. That's it, nothing else.

Second CD. Riding my single speed down Mapleton Ave.. There are 13 Will Schafroth signs. There are no Polis signs or Fitz-Gerald signs. Mapleton Riding around Table Mesa, you don't see the same number of Will signs. Boulder liberals have rejected Joan in favor of Will. But Will is not cutting into Joan anywhere else in the District, he is killing Jared. Without Will in the race, Jared would win, but Will has killed Jared's potential Boulder base. But the rest of the district is clueless about this race.

What's more, Joan still has big support among Democratic Women (note to Thielen, notice the capitalized letters, I am not talking about women that are Democrats).

It takes 17,000 votes to win the Second CD. Joan will win. 85% chance.

Camera Endorsement - Polis sucks

While Will Shafroth has benefited from other major newspaper endorsements, Jared Polis has managed to annoy and alienate large numbers of
Boulder County voters as follows:

1.) His phony pose as a progressive has been seen through because of his free market conservative ideology as evidenced by his call
for the privatization of the Post Office.

2.) Polis would not repudiate campaign contributors such as Alex Cranberg, the big oilman of Swift Boat attack ad on Kerry infamy.

3.) Jared is too full of ego and 
new mega-money and thinks he can buy people. In Boulder County this will not fly.

4.) All along, whether in whispers, e-mail or
TV ads, the Polis campaign has attempted to smear Fitz-Gerald with a series of lies and
distortions about ties to Oil & Gas. It's a case
about a Big Lie. Please go to www.OpenSecrets.org
and learn more about Jared who is ethically challenged but thinks himself smarter than he
actually is.