100% accurate election prediction.

Real liberal Boulder correctly predicted all seven city council seats last November (though I missed the order of finish). Can I do it again. Of course! But this is much much tougher than the city council, because the forces at work are completely different.

Dummy libertarian David Thielen thinks Boulder has political elite that directs it. It does, but it doesn't work the way that rightie Thielen thinks it does. First, the newspaper in this town are not part of the political elite, the paper is quite to the right of the political elite in Boulder. Second, the political elite is not some kind of patronage network as Shaun Coleman thinks (which is why he is an utter failure as a city council candidate). This is a small town you two dumb guys, people know each other, and the political forces are shaped by Open Space politics, the neighborhoods, (especially (1) downtown and the Hill and (2) Table Mesa and Martin Acres), Democratic Women, and the University. That's it, nothing else.

Second CD. Riding my single speed down Mapleton Ave.. There are 13 Will Schafroth signs. There are no Polis signs or Fitz-Gerald signs. Mapleton Riding around Table Mesa, you don't see the same number of Will signs. Boulder liberals have rejected Joan in favor of Will. But Will is not cutting into Joan anywhere else in the District, he is killing Jared. Without Will in the race, Jared would win, but Will has killed Jared's potential Boulder base. But the rest of the district is clueless about this race.

What's more, Joan still has big support among Democratic Women (note to Thielen, notice the capitalized letters, I am not talking about women that are Democrats).

It takes 17,000 votes to win the Second CD. Joan will win. 85% chance.