Who will win.

Boulder's stupid clueless political blogger. He hides behind the liberal label, but liberals don't go around saying "a man's home is his castle." David Thielin you are so transparent, these are code words for libertarian, and apparently you believe that the Camera blog relects the opinion of the community. The election results, like two years ago, will show just how clueless you remain.

The biz community going after Macon essentially ensures his reelection to a four year term. The opposition candidates are extremely week, with only KC having any experience or community ties. Barry Siff, wtf. Anybody with such a transparent "i know best" attitude (the kind that makes David Thielin pant with joy) cannot possiblely win a seat.

The biz community has not put up a strong enough slate to defeat Macon. Boulder is full of serious people who understand the growth issue, Barry Siff is not a serious person, he is a weird self promoter. That is not the kind of person who will get the 8,000 votes. (Barry, you will have no probelm winning in Broomfield, I suggest a move).

Candidates without any real ties to the community, like Barry Stiff and Feisty Fenno just can't get to the 8,000 number, even with the unlimited developer money they have. Stiff's involvment with the community, which consists of self promoting semi-athletic events, is not the type of involvement that makes any real difference in the community and getting people to support you.

KC is really the only serious opposition candidate. Sure, her switching sides on Planning Board to the growth side might cost her votes. But the conservatives and developers have no one else to vote for. And her background in Democratic politics is enough to make her a serious candidate though. She will get some of this vote.

The top vote getter last time was Ken Wilson. Ageton and Ken love their position as top vote getters, but that was under different circumstances when Suzy was totally unknown (as Ken was last time). Ageton is solidly pegged as a pro-growther now, and her busy body attitude has cost her a lot of the Democratic Women support that was key to her large vote total. The last council was elected to put a stop to Ruzzin and Ageton, which it did. So i don't see her as the number one vote getter in this election. The last election shows how things will play out.

Ken Wilson 9,815 10.4%

Crystal Gray 9,419 10%

Susan M. Osborne 9,155 9.7%

Lisa Morzel 8,808 9.3%

Angelique Espinoza 8,322 8.8%

Macon Cowles 8,236 8.7%

Matthew Appelbaum 6,838 7.2%

Susan K. Peterson 4,419 4.7%

Eugene Pearson 4,154 4.4%

Shawn L. Coleman 3,738 4%

Adam Massey 3,250 3.4%

There is nothing from the last election results that shows the Daily Camerag's wishes of a pro-biz council will happen. The only pure biz candidates, with no support from Sierra Club or the traditional Democrats, did very poorly. That was looser Adam. The only way for biz candidates to get on is to get some strength from other communities, and only KC has that. It would also presume the total disapparance of the PLAN boulder and Sierra Club vote, which is not going to happen in two years.

The Little Angel got her 8,000 votes by getting the biz vote and her deep involvement in Democratic Women. This is what KC has for this election and so this train wreck will either be fourth or fifth. The only chance of defeating her is if people see her candidacy as the deception that it is, which Boulder voters won't.

Macon is not in trouble. He lost the first time over name recognition, the people that voted for him last time will vote for him again. Thus, and easy 8,000 votes. In fact, he is likely to be the top vote getter. The 8,000 who voted for him last time knew exactly what he was going to do on council and he did it. Given the weakness of the candidates against him, people are not going to switch from Macon to Stiff and Fenno.

Applebaum did very poorly last time in a deep field. He actually will need more people to vote for him last time, which would make him a more viable pick off than Macon. But the 1500 people who voted for the other winners and not for him last election did not vote for him because of his reputation. I think that the hesitancy over his reputation is now gone. Suzy and Macon just need the same vote totals to win. While Suzy has lost votes, she has not lost enough to put her in any serious trouble. Apple will need to get 1500 people to vote for him who did not in the last election. This will be tough.

Suzy is probably ensured re-election. But remember how poorly Tom did in his waning years. I think that fourth place is possible for her. But she will probably be first or second.

So this leaves Fenno, Stiff, Raj, and Plass for the last seat. Fenno is a pure biz developer candididate, this does not get him to 8,000. That puts you in Adam Massey, Scott Gershorn territory of 3,000-5,000 votes, so no seat for him. Same with Stiff. Stiff is the Richard Polk of the election, with his own quirkly weirdness. But he also has a fatal "I know better" attitude that will not win him any friends. Likewise, Raj is in the Eugune Pearson range of votes, she will get all the liberals, but that is not enough to ger her out of the 5,000 range.

So Plass is the test and the likely fifth seat. If Boulder really has decided that it is not is not anti-growth, and that the last council was not put in place to limit pops and scrapes, then Tim is done. However, the desparate attacks of the money interests, the scrapebaggers, along with the Camera's attacks, illustrate just how unlikely all of that is. The Ruzzin council was elected secretly, people thought they were getting environmentalists, not developers. They were thrown out handily. Things have not changed, Newlands residents and developers are not even close to a majority. So the vote will be:

Macon - 10,000

Suzy - 8700

Appelbaum - 8250

Plass - 8200

KC - 8000