Dump Suzy Agetator

Pro-growth, anti-downtown city councilperson Suzy Ageton reveals her true pro-growth colors at yesterdays city council meeting. According to yesterday's Daily Rag, Suzy thinks all those buildings going in downtown are too small, and are a benefit to the community. Time to dump the dip.

Accurate prediction yet again

Unlike Rush Limbaugh/Ron Paul pretender Democrat David Thielen, RLB correctly predicts that the candidate to get 15,000 votes wins th 2 CD primary.

I didn't predict Joan would loose, but given her poor campaign and lack of presence in Boulder, its not a shock. Looking for theories for why should lost heavy union area Adams County.

Jared spent over $300 per vote. Hope his new hobby is worth it.

Rollie wins

With early mail in votes candidate, Rollie wins easily. Cindy proves being nasty costs you an election. These results are not likely going to change, 1200 votes is to many to make up.

Cindy Carlisle 3,686 43% 40%

Rollie Heath 4,883 57% 53%
______

Jared is winning Boulder by 300 and loosing Jefferson by 100. Denver post is showing him with 800 vote lead, which should be enough for him to win. Mountain counties could give this to Joan, but she is probably only looking at less than a 1000 voters in each county. I assume that Joan campaigned heavily in the mountains knowing that Boulder would split. But her poor campaign probably cost her.

Will is out, he could have cost Jared the election by the 500 votes Jared needs to win.

Cindy v Rollie

This election was Cindy's to loose and she is doing a pretty good job of it. No endorsements from anyone of note, a crappy campaign, and a crabby personality. But Cindy may still be able to pull it off. Why? While politicians have universally endorsed Rollie, Cindy still has support of Democratic Women and core downtown people to get the votes she needs to win. While some have pealed off, their strength is so overwhelming in the district, its probably enough for her to win.

Rollie's only chance was to run a good campaign, which he did. He walked the entire district and met plenty of voters.

It takes 3500 votes to win the nomination.

Too close to call. How about Cindy 3800, Rollie 3300

Or: Rollie 3650; Cindy 3400.

Talk about covering my bases.

100% accurate election prediction.

Real liberal Boulder correctly predicted all seven city council seats last November (though I missed the order of finish). Can I do it again. Of course! But this is much much tougher than the city council, because the forces at work are completely different.

Dummy libertarian David Thielen thinks Boulder has political elite that directs it. It does, but it doesn't work the way that rightie Thielen thinks it does. First, the newspaper in this town are not part of the political elite, the paper is quite to the right of the political elite in Boulder. Second, the political elite is not some kind of patronage network as Shaun Coleman thinks (which is why he is an utter failure as a city council candidate). This is a small town you two dumb guys, people know each other, and the political forces are shaped by Open Space politics, the neighborhoods, (especially (1) downtown and the Hill and (2) Table Mesa and Martin Acres), Democratic Women, and the University. That's it, nothing else.

Second CD. Riding my single speed down Mapleton Ave.. There are 13 Will Schafroth signs. There are no Polis signs or Fitz-Gerald signs. Mapleton Riding around Table Mesa, you don't see the same number of Will signs. Boulder liberals have rejected Joan in favor of Will. But Will is not cutting into Joan anywhere else in the District, he is killing Jared. Without Will in the race, Jared would win, but Will has killed Jared's potential Boulder base. But the rest of the district is clueless about this race.

What's more, Joan still has big support among Democratic Women (note to Thielen, notice the capitalized letters, I am not talking about women that are Democrats).

It takes 17,000 votes to win the Second CD. Joan will win. 85% chance.

Camera Endorsement - Polis sucks

While Will Shafroth has benefited from other major newspaper endorsements, Jared Polis has managed to annoy and alienate large numbers of
Boulder County voters as follows:

1.) His phony pose as a progressive has been seen through because of his free market conservative ideology as evidenced by his call
for the privatization of the Post Office.

2.) Polis would not repudiate campaign contributors such as Alex Cranberg, the big oilman of Swift Boat attack ad on Kerry infamy.

3.) Jared is too full of ego and 
new mega-money and thinks he can buy people. In Boulder County this will not fly.

4.) All along, whether in whispers, e-mail or
TV ads, the Polis campaign has attempted to smear Fitz-Gerald with a series of lies and
distortions about ties to Oil & Gas. It's a case
about a Big Lie. Please go to www.OpenSecrets.org
and learn more about Jared who is ethically challenged but thinks himself smarter than he
actually is.

Schafroth is most "boulder" candidate

Denver Post Joins The Rocky Mountain News and Endorses Will Shafroth

"...overall, Will Shafroth is the best fit for Colorado's 2nd Congressional District."

"...what really impressed us about Shafroth was his measured take on the issues. His views are more realistic and consistent with the 2nd Congressional District..."

"Congress doesn't need more politicians. It needs more level heads, and people who are beholden only to their constituents. We think Shafroth fits that bill."

Egomaniac Polis probably will not pull it out this time, but he will be running the rest of his life until he finally wins.

Shawn Coleman, the Manchurian delegate

Shawn Coleman, the Manchurian delegate. You think this guy is actually going to vote for Obama at the convention. The line is 3-2 that Shawn will not vote for Obama at the convention. There will be some imaginary slight by someone in the party. In fact, Shawn may not even a Democratic. He thinks that the party should revolve around his and because he thinks the party is all about him.

Remember Mo Siegell, yeah, the Celestial Seasons guy. He was elected DNC delegate for Dukakis from Boulder. But like Shawn, he is a self-righteous prick. And, he broke his promise to the caucus goers and didn't vote the way he was elected.

I see Shawn doing the same thing. Maybe he will read the New Yorker profile of Obama, an incredible article to read if you want to understand Obama. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/21/080721fa_fact_lizza

Shawn will decide that Obama is just a typical Chicago politician (which thank god he is) and vote for some whacked out character.

David Thielen fails to understand Cindy Carlisle's conflict of interest

David, a supposed progressive, and his right wing blog, completely fail to under why Cindy really is a creep. So her husband lawyer Baine admits that Cindy knew he had been retained by a client while she was running and he was in contact with CU representing a client as an adversary. She knew she had a conflict of interest.

This M-Fer is an Obama DNC delegate?

Shawn Coleman endorses the Republican party in his blog:


"Boulder county is a for all intensive purposes a Uni-party county. Republicans rarely run and when they do they loose in a landslide. This is dangerous for democracy as well as the democratic party. Just because the conservative mindset is the minority does not mean they do not deserve representation. Further the "can't loose" mindset of the Democrats has created a system of spoils. The answer to potential candidates who would consider running for office is "wait your turn". . . . Apparently absolute power does corrupt absolutlely and the once hopeful progressive Boulder County Democratic machine is slowly becoming the Republican party it replaced. "

Was stupid Shawn Coleman even here when the Republican party was in power. Does Shawn remember Buzz Smith? Shawn is pissed because he was rejected by the voters for his ultra-pro growth views, which are completely out of touch with this community.

Clearly, this guy has no business being a DNC delegate.

PAC it away

Jared Polis is the latest liar in Boulder politics. Despite his push as squeaky clean rich guy, he's been accepting money from PACs. Which is fine. He doesn't even need the money. But then he goes on the air and pushes a TV ad that touts he is not accepting PAC money. Story here at Channel 7.

He may be to dumb to be a Congressman.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/politics/16707348/detail.html

Rollie Heath v. Cindy

While no one of any consequence has endorsed Cindy Carlisle, (serial candidate Shawn Coleman doesn't count), everybody endorses Rollie. Why, because Cindy is creepy when it comes to working with others. Just look at this list, is there anybody left to endorse Cindy?

Alice Madden State Representative

Brandon Shaffer State Senator

Paul Weissmann State Representative
Gail Schwartz State Senator
Ed Perlmutter U.S. Congressman

Crystal Gray Boulder Deputy Mayor

Angelique Espinoza Boulder City Council Member

Macon Cowles Boulder City Council Member

Susan Osborne Boulder City Council Member

Matt Appelbaum Boulder City Council Member

Cindy Domenico Boulder County Commissioner

Ben Pearlman Boulder County Commissioner

Jerry Roberts Boulder County Assessor

Tom Faure Boulder County Coroner

Bob Hullinghorst Boulder County Treasurer

Michael Carrigan CU Regent

Stephen Ludwig CU Regent

Joe Pelle Boulder County Sheriff

Bob Sievers Former CU Regent

Laurie Albright Boulder Valley School Board Member

Patti Smith Boulder Valley School Board Member

Helayne Jones Boulder Valley School Board President

Ken RobergeBoulder Valley School Board Member

Stan Garnett Former Boulder Valley School Board President

Linda ShoemakerFormer Boulder Valley School Board President

Linda Jourgensen Former Boulder Mayor

George Epp Former Boulder County Sheriff

Michael Feeley Former State Senate Minority Leader

Leslie Durgin Former Boulder Mayor

Todd Saliman Former State Representative

Josie Heath Former County Commissioner

Frank Dubofsky Former District Court Judge

Jean DubofskyFormer CO Supreme Court Justice

John Tayer RTD District Representative

Cindy Carlisle endorsed by dopes

Carlisle's election mailing arrived on Saturday, and her endorsement's read like a list of Boulder mediocrity. While there are some normal endorsements from cool people like Al Bartlett, she includes in her list of kudos, an endorsement from liberal pretender David Thielen, a person with no political experience, general cluelessness about Boulder, and no-progressive ideas when it comes to civility, open-space, and growth. The lack of elected officials, with the exception of a couple of counsel members, endorsing Cindy is telling that her reputation is poor. Relying on Thielen, Shawn Coleman, and Ken Wilson as your big supporters? Huh?

Cindy has a bad temper and has a reputation for loosing her friends. While if she wins the seat, she will be there for her 8 years, her letter and lack of serious endorsements shows she will get nothing done on her own. She simply can't play with other's nice.

Rollie's reputation as a "business guy" will hurt among Boulder's liberals, and most people have not figured out Cindy's bad temper. Can Rollie knock on enough doors to make a difference?

And guess what, comments turned back on so the dopes can respond!

Shawn Coleman shirt

Yeah, so the guy is real proud to be a DNC delegate, but does he really need his own t-shirt?

Shawn Coleman finds his calling

Shawn Coleman elected Obama delegate at 2nd CD convention. Finally, this guy finds his calling, which is national and state politics, not nasty local city politics. Shawn will never get elected to City counsel while he is under 35 years old, especially given his pro-growth positions and his pro-business positions on the downtown boulder planning commission Residents don't want some kid to tell them how to govern their city.

But state and national politics are different. Shawn should get out of poisonous city politics and focus on the state, where youth counts and broad ideas matter. Also, growth has a completely different meaning at the state level, where a broad environmental position is all that is needed for a Democrat. And people that wouldn't even think about having him on city council would happily have him in a state or national position.

David Thielin makes ass of self at Dem convention

Political poseur David Thielin made an ass out of himself at the Second CD convention this last weekend, passing out cheesy home-made flyers with La Rouche like undertones. Will Schafroth actually rolled his eyes as David spewed out his political conspiracy theories.

Will the Second CD actually vote for this numskull? Not with 3 Obama delegates at stake, there were some really plugged in people running for delegate, and running a Boulder blog like David does is not exactly a way to get credibility with the party.

David Thielin - political dummy for National delegate?

Republican liberal poseur David Thielin wants to be a national delegate for Obama, even though he endorsed Edwards on his little read web page. Why is David a Rush clone? And can David be trusted not to switch his vote and the convention?

David is untrustworthy. First, he endorsed Republican Bob Greenlee to run against liberal progressive Democrat Claire Levy for the state house. Why would any Democrat delegate want this type of person as a delegate. This is what he wrote about our Democratic representative.

"As to the Republicans, here is what you do. When it's time to select your candidate for this seat, wait until Bob Greenlee leaves the convention floor for a minute and then quickly vote to make him the Republican candidate to challenge Claire. That would be a great race." http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2007/11/claire-ms-arrog.html

Second, he manipulates the news to fit his views, like Fox News Liberal councilperson Macon Cowles said said that as the one-man operator of his Web site, Thielen has the power to color the picture of candidates that voters receive, and he's not convinced he'll be fair. "I would not give Rush Limbaugh the chance to distort my record or my views, and I will not give that chance to Thielen, who is not 'Liberal and loving it!' as proclaimed on his masthead."

Third, he has posted extensively about electing Republicans in Boulder County.

http://www.davidthielen.info/politics/2007/09/its-time-to-bri.html

Coleman on building lots of stuff

Finally, Candidate Coleman finally comes out as the extreme pro-growther that he tried to hide from the voters during last November's election. This is why you didn't win looser, your out of step with the city, with the exception of the reactionary bloggers that have turned this web site into an unreadable mess. With the Real Estate lobby endorsing such winners as Adam Massey and Shawn Coleman, neither of whom came close to winning, the council's restrictions on growth should come as a surprise to no-one.

Suzy Ageton; nosey librarian or city council member?

Suzy's attempt to embarrass Crystal Gray at Tuesday's council member faltered, as her fellow council members gave her issues with Crystal a big yawn. The other seven council members basically said, Crystal is great, why are you bothering us with this crap. A clearly embarrassed Suzy Ageton responded that she was simply bringing this up to for the good of the community; but the rest of the council said this is none of our business and has nothing to do with us.

Suzy's busybody attitude may have been popular with past council members, but this council isn't going to tolerate this garbage. Crystal effectively defended her record, and Suzy came off like an ass. Also a big fug you to David Thielin, the only idiot in Boulder to care about Channel 7s yellow journalism; those in the know know that Crystal works 40 plus not just on council activities, and is was one of the most prepared council members on the last city council. (This city council is smarter than the last, so everybody is prepared).

Ryan Morgan, Daily Camera's lazy reporter

This is one lazy Daily Chumpara reporter that is not headed for anything bigger in his career. Having met the reporter at many board and council meetings, he doesn't come off as a rocket scientist, more of a fratish party-boy. He shows his poor reporting skills today in his brilliant investigative story on the front page of the paper today. Take today's in-depth story on Crystal Gray.

Entitled "critics" want Crystal Gray to resign, Morgan proceeds to report on what one "critic" says on his local blog. That's it. No other critic is mentioned. One crazy guy and his crazy blog. I've got news for everybody, what David Thielin's puts on his blog is not even remotely reflective of public opinion in this town, if it was, we would have losers such as Shaun Coleman on council. Thielin has time and time again proven to be out of touch with this community, and regardless, the paper has no business reporting what he writes on his blog.

This is agenda driven reporting at its finest. The Camera is sore over lots of issues, mainly the new council's growth control positions, and this story is how the Camera attacks the council.

Boulder for Obama

Looking at only South Boulder, Obama is cleaning up contributions from the South Boulder zip code. For those puzzled bloggers who don't understand who Boulder is and what its all abouts, these numbers are more revealing than listening to the same whiners that blog on the Camera web page. (people on the Camera blog may vote, but they are total fringe in the community)

Let's look at Hillary. Her numbers for south boulder are not as strong . Hill has about $8100 in contributions from:

1 Ahn, Natalie Boulder CO 80305 Information Requested $500

2 Deetz, Stanley Boulder CO 80305 University Of Colorado $500

3 Hartley, Judy Boulder CO 80305 Self employed $500

4 Heath, Josephine Boulder CO 80305 The Community Foundation $1,000

5 Heath, Josephine Boulder CO 80305 The Community Foundation $1,300

6 Heath, Stratton Boulder CO 80305 Self employed $500

7 Johnson, Rita Boulder CO 80305 Raymond James & Assoc $35

8 Johnson, Rita Boulder CO 80305 Raymond James & Assoc $500

9 Mandell, Victoria Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $500

10 Mandell, Victoria Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $100

11 Martin, James Boulder CO 80305 City Of Boulder $500

12 Martin, James Boulder CO 80305 City Of Boulder $25

13 Mccue, Ann Boulder CO 80305 Longmont United Hospital $101

14 Mccue, Ann Boulder CO 80305 Longmont United Hospital $500

15 Noonan, Carrie Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $500

16 Reynolds, William Boulder CO 80305 Next Century Software $50

17 Reynolds, William Boulder CO 80305 Next Century Software $50

18 Rosenthal, Diane Boulder CO 80305 Not employed $500


Obama has 49 contributors for a total of $13,000, including two people that maxed out their contributions.

The 80302 zip code is even more for Obama. He had 121 contributors, compared to 49 for Hillary. These results are probably going to mirror the caucus pretty closely, with Boulder's upper classes voting for Obama in big numbers.

Ron Paul continues attracted three contributors in the Boulder area, but they all gave big, for a total over $3,000.

David Thielin gave nothing to no one. Jerk.

Boulder for Obama?

Its going to be a wild caucus in Boulder on February 5. With a neck and neck presidential campaign, who will win Boulder. Conventional wisdom is that rich liberals, that is us, will vote for Obama. Obama is the Paul Tsongas, Howard Dean or this election, but black, so he gets the upper class vote, which is what Boulder is all about.

But super strong Democratic women organization in Boulder will continue to partially back Hillary. So expect some strong Hillary support; however, I would be surprised if Hillary won more than one or two precincts in Boulder.

In Boulder, each precinct will only have four to seven delegates. So the delegates will likely split pretty evenly in each precinct. It will be tough for any individual to be elected delegate in a particular caucus, because both Hillary and Obama camps will want their people in. In 2004, lots of Kucinich people (well maybe 20) got to go to the county convention, because, there were plenty of spots. This is unlikely to happen, and Edwards and Dennis will be shut out of the county convention to a great extent.

East county and Longmont should make it up for Hillary.

The State convention should be even more interesting. With only 54 delegates going to the national convention, the split between the two camps will be pretty close

Edwards-no campaign in Colorado - convention

The John Edwards campaign has been nearly invisible in Boulder, which does not bode well for the February 5, 2008 caucus. While both Obama and Clinton have been calling registered caucus voters (ie, only Democrats, in Colorado, independents do not caucus) on an almost daily basis, I have received no calls from Edwards, and there is really no place for supporters to volunteer. Edwards is running for the number two spot, but he doesn't have the money to sustain a campaign if he does not win in NH or SC, which won't happen. So Clinton, even coming in three in NH, will still go on.

This means it really is Clinton v. Obama on February 5. Clinton will probably loose NH and SC, though she might win Nevada, and maybe even Florida. Even loosing all four, she will stick around for super tuesday, and will try and win CA and NY. Super Tuesday, with over 1600 delegates selected, will be the deciding day for the nomination. The tide will be against Clinton, but a win in NY or CA on super Tuesday would wipe out any advantage that Obama may have by his early wins. The conventional wisdom is that the winner of IA and NH wins the nomination, but super Tuesday is big, and Clinton will have plenty of time to go negative on Obama before the big vote. If Clinton wins CA and NY, she gets the nomination, regardless of her losses in the small states, because her losses is the small states will be relatively close, delegate wise.

So, prediction, brokered convention with Clinton and Obama.

Iowa caucus results

Results look to be pretty certain.

Clinton - 29%
Obama - 38%
Edwards 30%
Richardson - 2%