To win a council seat, you need a strong base in the community and support from many different types of Bouderites. If you run for counsel, and focus on one group, you loose. My prediction is that this election will show the following about endorsements:
1. Daily Camera and Colorado Daily endorsements: The election will show that this endorsement is worth 2,000 to 3,000 votes. Coleman's lack of community base and campaign, but getting these endorsements, isn't enough to get him to the 10,000 mark. Shawn simply does not know enough people to win a seat. Cowles lack of the endorsement costs him, but he was already at 9,000 votes last time, so the hard work he has done means he will easily get the extra 1,000 votes he needs to win a seat, despite no paper. For Crystal, Susan, Ken and Angie, the paper endorsement puts them into the solid upper four spots, away from the bottom feeders that will get two-year terms.
2. BOC and FI-DOS. Polk won with BOC and the paper endorsement, getting 2,000 votes he lacked the last time. And he had a solid base in the community, with lots of connections, to different wheelers and "dealers". Massey is the new Polk in this election (not only because he smokes") but because he has gone after the recreation endorsement and he got 1/2 the paper endorsement. But does he have a base in the community? Or a girlfriend? These endorsements are worth a couple thousand votes, but there doesn't seem to be anything else. Without the years of building connections, serving on downtowns boards, etc., these endorsements will prove to not be enough. The candidates that will greatly benefit from these endorsements again is Susan, big Ken Wilson and Angie, who have such broad support, they will get twice the votes.
Some of the other candidates that were not endorsed by these groups will still do well because they have inroads into these groups membership. Macon's dog bites everybody, so he will get a good 1/2 of the FI-DOS members anyway.
3. PLAN Boulder, Sierra Bub verses human services- A candidate can be opposed by the slow growth movement and still win, but not if they are only a businessperson. Riggle, Burger Tom all had big inroads into the Human Services community to offset any of those small building people. Rutherford has no crossover vote from the environmental or Human Service community, his appeal is only pro development and pro law enforcement. Massey's crossover to the slow growth and Sierra Bub voters seems limited. Yes he bike commutes, but that's easy if your not working (and high).
4. Mark Ruzzin - Polk isn't the only little shit leaving council. Our know-it-all mayor has endorsed a number of candidates. Since 40% of the voters have no idea who the mayor is, it probably has not significantly helped either Ken Wilson or Adam Massey. Ken was already going to win, and so was Adam, if he had managed to "commute" to work.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Real Bigline - the votes are in
The election is over. The winners have been determined. Though some of you may continue to vote, you will vote in the same proportions as those who have already voted. Though the votes have not been counted, they will read:
1. Susan Osborne - 15,233
2. Crystal Gray - 13, 927
3. Angie Espinoza - 13, 255
4. Macon Cowles - 11, 287
5. Ken Wilson - 11, 101
6. Lisa Morzel - 10,766
7. Matt A. - 10,456
8. Adam Massey - 9,027
9. Erick Rutherfork - 8,487
10. Eugene Pearson 7,245
11. Shawn Coleman - 6,897
12. Larry Quilling - 4,678
13. Alan O'Hashi - 3, 764
14. Philip Hernandez - 2,876
15. Rob Smoke - 37
1. Susan Osborne - 15,233
2. Crystal Gray - 13, 927
3. Angie Espinoza - 13, 255
4. Macon Cowles - 11, 287
5. Ken Wilson - 11, 101
6. Lisa Morzel - 10,766
7. Matt A. - 10,456
8. Adam Massey - 9,027
9. Erick Rutherfork - 8,487
10. Eugene Pearson 7,245
11. Shawn Coleman - 6,897
12. Larry Quilling - 4,678
13. Alan O'Hashi - 3, 764
14. Philip Hernandez - 2,876
15. Rob Smoke - 37
Monday, October 22, 2007
Espinoza bougth and paid for
Recent letter to editor says it all:
Recognizing that large campaign contributions are used to buy political access and influence government actions, in 1999, Boulder residents passed a campaign finance reform law to ensure that large contributions will not cause corruption or the appearance of corruption in Boulder elections.
The law clearly states:
No candidate for city council shall solicit or accept any contribution, including any "in-kind" contribution, that will cause the total contributions from any person to exceed one hundred dollars per election.
But influential real estate developers are giving their pro-development candidates, like Angelique Espinoza, many times more than the $100 limit. Developer Lou DellaCava, for example, in addition to cutting Espinoza a personal check for $100 also gave her a $100 check from his DellaCava Hartronft Development Company, and another $100 check from the DellaCava Day Development Company, and another $100 check from the DellaCava Fox Creek Associates, and another $100 check from 2144 North Main LLC. Other Boulder developers and their attorneys such as Michael Berman and Bruce Dierking also used this scheme to provide Espinoza's campaign with multiple $100 checks.
Typically such contributions are presented in a single bundle to strengthen their intended effect. And true to form, public records show that all of DellaCava's contributions to Espinoza were received on a single day.
It's a bad sign when a candidate for city council chooses to circumvent our campaign finance laws. Angelique Espinoza could have returned all contributions in excess of $100, but she did not. And not only did her campaign accept the multiple $100 contributions, but those large contributions were used to apply, dollar for dollar, for matching funds from Boulder taxpayers. DellaCava's and Berman's $500 contributions, for example, were each matched with $500 of public funds, accounting for a large percentage of Espinoza's total.
Interestingly, Espinoza's website lists over 100 supporters, but none of the pro-growth developers and real estate speculators who provided her largest financial contributions are listed. A simple oversight? Or intentional deception? You tell me.
Ben Binder
Boulder
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Rutherford developer money - bought & paid for
There is little doubt who this candidate is representing, developers. His campaign money is coming from the usual developer suspects and lots of out of town money, from people hoping to make cash off of Boulder by building some crap, perhaps even a convention center
Boulder developers and landlords that contribute include
Tebo,
Boulder Property Management,
Gunpark Property Management
Two seperate Della Cava development companies
and 14 more developers, their spouses, and their companies.
Also, lots of money from out of town, including contributors from Cherry Hills, Lafeyette, Longmont, Denver, Aurora. What are all these out of town givers contributing to Rutherford for: How about to eliminate the 55 foot height limit, build 10,000 units at the transit village, build chaing stores, develop CU South. In short, make Boulder more like Superior or Highlands Ranch.
Read his latest list of out of town developer money at: http://www.ci.boulder.co.us/files/Elections/2007/rutherford_ce100907.pdf
And to you and your developer money:
http://www.geocities.com/ron8318/cashonly.htm
Boulder developers and landlords that contribute include
Tebo,
Boulder Property Management,
Gunpark Property Management
Two seperate Della Cava development companies
and 14 more developers, their spouses, and their companies.
Also, lots of money from out of town, including contributors from Cherry Hills, Lafeyette, Longmont, Denver, Aurora. What are all these out of town givers contributing to Rutherford for: How about to eliminate the 55 foot height limit, build 10,000 units at the transit village, build chaing stores, develop CU South. In short, make Boulder more like Superior or Highlands Ranch.
Read his latest list of out of town developer money at: http://www.ci.boulder.co.us/files/Elections/2007/rutherford_ce100907.pdf
And to you and your developer money:
http://www.geocities.com/ron8318/cashonly.htm
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Why "Libertarian and Loving It" analysis is incorrect
Because he makes his predictions without reviewing history, he knows nothing about how Boulder got to be the way it is.
Below are prior election results. To loose, 4,000 people who voted for Crystal last time are going to have to vote against her this time and vote for someone else, someone that does not happen to incumbents where there is no significant issue against such incumbent. Crystal is loved, so she will get her votes easily.
The past election results are show why Shawn has no chance, 7,000 more people are going to have to vote for him that chose not to last time. While he may have convinced some, most realize that his youth and conservative values are not the right fit for Boulder. Do you want to trust someone who has never owned a house with setting your property taxes? Most will answer no. Youth like Shawn's is a better fit for the State House, not the thrash em up issues for a city council. Most will see the Camera endorsement as the papers phony attempt at balance. At least Shawn is smart, and it speaks volumes that the paper couldn't come to terms and endorse Massey.
Past results show why Macon has a chance, look how Polk barely lost, then got it the second time.
Past results also show why Rutherford is another Scott Gessler. Gessler had a stronger campaign, but people were not going to vote for a Republican. Though Rutherford does not appear as conservative, he is still the developer guy, but his campaign is nowhere as strong as Gessler, who plastered the city with yard signs, robo calls and mailings. Maybe if I get a couple of mailings and a robo call I'll change my opinion, but Gessler did these things and it didn't help,. Maybe there is some massive demographic change since 2003, but this is a university town with massive federal lab presence, Rutherford, Buzz B and Theilin "liberals" really are not a significant part of this town, at least not to the point of consistently generating 10k votes needed to win.
The pro growthers that have won in the past, Ageton, Polk and Stokes, all had significant environmental support, and are people that were fixtures in the community for decades. Sierra Club endorsed Stokes. The Sierra Club endorsed Gordon Riggle. They all had the endorsements of former council members and mayors.
Rutherford, Massey, Coleman are outsiders at this point, they just are not the type of broad based people that are well known. Without the type of community support from the establishment, you don't get them to the 10,000 vote mark. Gessler and Shelia Horton are the type of well established biz and right leaning candidates that just cannot get to the 10,000 vote mark that biz candidates like Riggle could get to.
The biz candidates cannot win without crossover, and this has been consistent for at least 1995. Even burger Tom had difficulty winning the first time. The Biz candidate with crossover is Angie. The BOC endorsement may give Massey the appearance of crossover. But the Camera endorsement doesn't get Coleman the crossover that Ageton, Riggle, Stokes, Burger all had.
This is an pro careful planning, slow growth town. Angie and Suzy winning by a big margin does not change that. Further, these two women are significant players in the Democratic women's arena and are true liberals when one gets away from the planning issue and into the human services/national issues arena. Coleman and Rutherford do not have that. The rejection of the pro-growth agenda will be seen in the poor showing that Rutherford and perhaps Coleman will have in this election.
Below are prior election results. To loose, 4,000 people who voted for Crystal last time are going to have to vote against her this time and vote for someone else, someone that does not happen to incumbents where there is no significant issue against such incumbent. Crystal is loved, so she will get her votes easily.
The past election results are show why Shawn has no chance, 7,000 more people are going to have to vote for him that chose not to last time. While he may have convinced some, most realize that his youth and conservative values are not the right fit for Boulder. Do you want to trust someone who has never owned a house with setting your property taxes? Most will answer no. Youth like Shawn's is a better fit for the State House, not the thrash em up issues for a city council. Most will see the Camera endorsement as the papers phony attempt at balance. At least Shawn is smart, and it speaks volumes that the paper couldn't come to terms and endorse Massey.
Past results show why Macon has a chance, look how Polk barely lost, then got it the second time.
Past results also show why Rutherford is another Scott Gessler. Gessler had a stronger campaign, but people were not going to vote for a Republican. Though Rutherford does not appear as conservative, he is still the developer guy, but his campaign is nowhere as strong as Gessler, who plastered the city with yard signs, robo calls and mailings. Maybe if I get a couple of mailings and a robo call I'll change my opinion, but Gessler did these things and it didn't help,. Maybe there is some massive demographic change since 2003, but this is a university town with massive federal lab presence, Rutherford, Buzz B and Theilin "liberals" really are not a significant part of this town, at least not to the point of consistently generating 10k votes needed to win.
The pro growthers that have won in the past, Ageton, Polk and Stokes, all had significant environmental support, and are people that were fixtures in the community for decades. Sierra Club endorsed Stokes. The Sierra Club endorsed Gordon Riggle. They all had the endorsements of former council members and mayors.
Rutherford, Massey, Coleman are outsiders at this point, they just are not the type of broad based people that are well known. Without the type of community support from the establishment, you don't get them to the 10,000 vote mark. Gessler and Shelia Horton are the type of well established biz and right leaning candidates that just cannot get to the 10,000 vote mark that biz candidates like Riggle could get to.
The biz candidates cannot win without crossover, and this has been consistent for at least 1995. Even burger Tom had difficulty winning the first time. The Biz candidate with crossover is Angie. The BOC endorsement may give Massey the appearance of crossover. But the Camera endorsement doesn't get Coleman the crossover that Ageton, Riggle, Stokes, Burger all had.
This is an pro careful planning, slow growth town. Angie and Suzy winning by a big margin does not change that. Further, these two women are significant players in the Democratic women's arena and are true liberals when one gets away from the planning issue and into the human services/national issues arena. Coleman and Rutherford do not have that. The rejection of the pro-growth agenda will be seen in the poor showing that Rutherford and perhaps Coleman will have in this election.
2003 results
| Mark Ruzzin | 13681 | 11.64% | |
| Crystal Gray | 13657 | 11.62% | |
| Robin Bohannan | 13122 | 11.16% | |
| Jack Stoakes | 12564 | 10.69% | |
| Andy Schultheiss | 10877 | 9.25% | |
| Shaun McGrath | 10569 | 8.99% | |
| Richard Polk | 8822 | 7.51% | |
| Scott Gessler | 8014 | 6.82% | |
| Jim Rettew | 7931 | 6.75% | |
| Jeep Campbell | 6001 | 5.11% | |
| Nabil Karkamaz | 4647 | 3.95% | |
| Chris Maurer | 3794 | 3.23% | |
| Lynn Segal | 1821 | 1.55% | |
| Carl "Go" Grodnik | 1811 | 1.54% | |
| Write-in Votes | 230 | 0.20% |
2005 results
| 1. Suzy Ageton | 14091 | 15.9% |
| 10. Andy Schultheiss | 13111 | 14.8% |
| 4. Tom Eldridge | 12915 | 14.5% |
| 7. Shaun McGrath | 12874 | 14.5% |
| 9. Richard Polk | 10484 | 11.8% |
| 3. Macon Cowles | 9462 | 10.7% |
| 8. Eugene Pearson | 6979 | 7.9% |
| 2. Shawn Coleman | 3832 | 4.3% |
| 5. Nabil Karkamaz | 3447 | 3.9% |
| 6. John Klein | 1572 | 1.8% |
The Real Bigline - Boulder City Council
Some Ballots have hit the voters' mailboxes yesterday. Here are the true odds of the candidates winning. Expect a very low turnout. It will take 10,000 to 11,000 votes to win a seat.
Crystal Gray (2-1) : Incumbent, all three newspapers, PB endorsement, Sierra Club endorsement. An incumbent at the city council level does not have to raise tons of money to do very well. She is personally known by several thousand voters, will benefit from the Sierra Club mailing, will benefit from the Plan B/Sierra Club literature drop, her name in all of the voter guides as endorsed, Democratic women power behind her. Zero chance she will not get a four year seat. David Thielin's blog has her doing poorly, but that is just silly. She printed her yard signs and literature, has ad buys in the paper; that's all you need. The only votes she will not get are those people actually voting against her. For Angie and Susan, even Shawn and Macon, when they first ran, as they are running now, voters have to actually be educated about who they are and the campaign needs to boost name recognition. This doesn't apply to Crystal, you know what your going to get with her, popular Boulder views and a dog. Crystal will get 15,000 to 17,000 votes.
TWO YEAR SEATS Remaining candidates are likely to compete for a two year seat.
Lisa Morzel (6-1): Lisa probably will beat Matt, simply because negatives are not as high as Matt's. Will the conservatives rally around Coleman, Massey and Rutherford. Doubtful, its a bit to late for these three to get a campaign going. If they do, we will have a very different city
ie, 55 foot building in all of downtown, stupid convention center, etc. Morzel has the basic liberal college town values that people here like. Her campaign is massive, and that gets you 9,000 - 11,000 votes.
Macon Cowles (28-1) : "Running as exactly what PLAN Boulder wants and that could be enough (which is a sorry statement about how people can vote here)." This is what David says, and I say, move to Highlands Ranch or Broomfield. People with the values of Thielin live in those places, which suck, and not here. Macon's strong campaign could get him more votes than last time, and the field is much weaker than when he last ran. He didn't get the Camera endorsement last time, and he needed it this time for a sure win, so he is on the edge. BOC and FI-DOS people will vote against him, again, no mountain bike and stinky dogs. Still, he should be able to get 1,000 more votes than last time. Macon will get 7,000 to 9,000 votes. But is that enough?
Crystal Gray (2-1) : Incumbent, all three newspapers, PB endorsement, Sierra Club endorsement. An incumbent at the city council level does not have to raise tons of money to do very well. She is personally known by several thousand voters, will benefit from the Sierra Club mailing, will benefit from the Plan B/Sierra Club literature drop, her name in all of the voter guides as endorsed, Democratic women power behind her. Zero chance she will not get a four year seat. David Thielin's blog has her doing poorly, but that is just silly. She printed her yard signs and literature, has ad buys in the paper; that's all you need. The only votes she will not get are those people actually voting against her. For Angie and Susan, even Shawn and Macon, when they first ran, as they are running now, voters have to actually be educated about who they are and the campaign needs to boost name recognition. This doesn't apply to Crystal, you know what your going to get with her, popular Boulder views and a dog. Crystal will get 15,000 to 17,000 votes. Angelique Espinoza (3-1) : Angelique got a Daily Camera, Boulder Weekly & Sierra Club. endorsement. She won the Givem Hell Harry award last year from the Democrats, and though she is a pro-growther, this will be offset by the Sierra Club and Democratic women's vote. Angelique will be the development, ethnic, star of counsel, which will annoy Suzy to no end. Angie will basically kill Suzy's star on the council. Angie also benefits from the massive Sierra Club literature drop and membership mailing. However, her arrogant attitude will cost her the top finish. Angie will get 15,000 votes.
Ken Wilson (4-1) Will likely win a four year term. However, possibility of a slip to either Appleseed or Morzel, who are better known. No environmental enemies yet and squishy on the VMP means he could finish ahead of Crystal. But, university hill business people and landlords hate him, which will cost him 300-500 votes, putting him in 4th. Ken will get 14,000 votes.
TWO YEAR SEATS Remaining candidates are likely to compete for a two year seat.
Lisa Morzel (6-1): Lisa probably will beat Matt, simply because negatives are not as high as Matt's. Will the conservatives rally around Coleman, Massey and Rutherford. Doubtful, its a bit to late for these three to get a campaign going. If they do, we will have a very different city
ie, 55 foot building in all of downtown, stupid convention center, etc. Morzel has the basic liberal college town values that people here like. Her campaign is massive, and that gets you 9,000 - 11,000 votes.
Macon Cowles (28-1) : "Running as exactly what PLAN Boulder wants and that could be enough (which is a sorry statement about how people can vote here)." This is what David says, and I say, move to Highlands Ranch or Broomfield. People with the values of Thielin live in those places, which suck, and not here. Macon's strong campaign could get him more votes than last time, and the field is much weaker than when he last ran. He didn't get the Camera endorsement last time, and he needed it this time for a sure win, so he is on the edge. BOC and FI-DOS people will vote against him, again, no mountain bike and stinky dogs. Still, he should be able to get 1,000 more votes than last time. Macon will get 7,000 to 9,000 votes. But is that enough?
Matthew Applebaum (6-1) : Matt clearly has support and high positives (as well as high negatives). Matt knows he is the most qualified (and he is in some ways) and that both helps & hurts him some. He was a long shot to get a PLAN Boulder & BOC endorsement because he is a pro-growther to some extend, wanting to restock our city with new high density buildings, and he is not a nutjob, so he is not in line with BOC. Matt will get a literature drop from Sierra Club, big advantage to him, which may get him into the top 7. Matt will be in the 9,000 to 10,500 vote range. If the Rockies do well in the series, people may vote against Matt, because the feel good attitude is just not what Appleseed brings to the table.
Eugene Pearson (9-1) : PLAN Boulder and support among the human services community puts him up there. This is better than the BOC endorsement that Adam got, because it comes with a lit drop. But still young, in a city council election, young costs you, because you have not been around long enough for your neighbors to know you. Eugene will get 7,000 to 10,000 votes.
Adam Massey (9-1) : Adam is basically doing nothing. B.O.C. endorsement alone will not do the job because such endorsement only comes with an email, not a literature drop. Remember, Polk barely beat Macon, and he spent tons of money, got the Camera endorsement, and worked hard. And Polk only won by 1,000 votes. Adam f-ed up the Boulder Show for heaven's sake. Adam will get 8,000 to 9,000 votes, so right on the edge of winning.
Susan Peterson (41-1) : Got the PLAN Boulder endorsement. But she missed one forum and has missed a number of the Camera blogs. She may be hoping to coast in on that endorsement and that is a questionable approach. No newspaper endorsements - that probably ends it for Susan. Plan B literature drop, even with her poor piece, will get her 1,500 to 3,500 votes. Lisa and Macon and Matt voters will probably not vote for her in order to target their vote.
Kathryn Kramer (49-1) :Tom Riley (49-1) :Philip Bradley (60-1) :Seth Brigham (75-1) :Nabil Karkamaz (95-1) : Andrew Harrison (100-1) . None of these candidates will get more than the various Colorado Rockies write ins the clerk is going to have to deal with.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Shawn Coleman, not going to happen
Thielin over at his blog has Shawn listed as a slam dunk for election. Not going to happen. Sean will finish in the 9th to 11th range.
1) Shawn has no money, therefore no campaign. Many people will not get their information from the internet, or by reading candidates pieces in the paper, but from their campaigns. This means literature, newspaper adds, and neighborhood buzz. If you have money and a campaign, people talk about your campaign and urge friends to vote for you. This has to happen on a reasonably large scale. Sierra Club/ Plan B have a hundred plus volunteers working on the ten candidates they endorsed, this creates buzz. Sean's campaign just does not have enough buzz to create a critical mass of interest to get people to even look at voting for him.
2) No important endorsements. Sure FI-DOS and the Camera endorsed him, but this just isn't enough, because these endorsements do not come with campaigns. A FI-DOS endorsement means a letter to their email list. So what? Many of the people on the FI-DOS list are going to vote, for example, Crystal anyway, for Christ sake, her f**^&ing dog has bitten half of Boulder. There really is no dog issue this campaign, everybody knows that council is not going to touch the issue after the VMP fiasco. So the FI-DOS endorsement doesn't get him that big block of votes you need. The important endorsements are the ones that come with buzz, (not Buzz), and therefore, FI-DOS just doesn't create it.
The Camera endorsement is worth 2,000-3,000 votes. Look at the toke-a-Polk-Cowles split from the last election, it shows the value of a Camera endorsement. If Coleman had the BOC endorsement, it could put him closer to the magic 8,000 to 9,000 votes a candidate will need in order to win seventh place.
3) He is a conservative. Thielin thinks that if a candidate can think for himself/herself, they are qualified. Well Dick Cheney can think for himself, but what he thinks we ain't interested in. Shawn's views just are not in line with Boulder.
4) Thielin's has Crystal finishing behind him, not going to happen. Crystal will get more than twice the total votes of Shawn, even if they both win. And contrary to Thielin's opinion, Crystal seems to go to every candidate forum, has money, too many yardsigns, and is the benefit of the Sierra Club/Plan B literature drop, which will drop 40,000 pieces of paper directly into your recycling in the next weeks.
1) Shawn has no money, therefore no campaign. Many people will not get their information from the internet, or by reading candidates pieces in the paper, but from their campaigns. This means literature, newspaper adds, and neighborhood buzz. If you have money and a campaign, people talk about your campaign and urge friends to vote for you. This has to happen on a reasonably large scale. Sierra Club/ Plan B have a hundred plus volunteers working on the ten candidates they endorsed, this creates buzz. Sean's campaign just does not have enough buzz to create a critical mass of interest to get people to even look at voting for him.
2) No important endorsements. Sure FI-DOS and the Camera endorsed him, but this just isn't enough, because these endorsements do not come with campaigns. A FI-DOS endorsement means a letter to their email list. So what? Many of the people on the FI-DOS list are going to vote, for example, Crystal anyway, for Christ sake, her f**^&ing dog has bitten half of Boulder. There really is no dog issue this campaign, everybody knows that council is not going to touch the issue after the VMP fiasco. So the FI-DOS endorsement doesn't get him that big block of votes you need. The important endorsements are the ones that come with buzz, (not Buzz), and therefore, FI-DOS just doesn't create it.
The Camera endorsement is worth 2,000-3,000 votes. Look at the toke-a-Polk-Cowles split from the last election, it shows the value of a Camera endorsement. If Coleman had the BOC endorsement, it could put him closer to the magic 8,000 to 9,000 votes a candidate will need in order to win seventh place.
3) He is a conservative. Thielin thinks that if a candidate can think for himself/herself, they are qualified. Well Dick Cheney can think for himself, but what he thinks we ain't interested in. Shawn's views just are not in line with Boulder.
4) Thielin's has Crystal finishing behind him, not going to happen. Crystal will get more than twice the total votes of Shawn, even if they both win. And contrary to Thielin's opinion, Crystal seems to go to every candidate forum, has money, too many yardsigns, and is the benefit of the Sierra Club/Plan B literature drop, which will drop 40,000 pieces of paper directly into your recycling in the next weeks.
Will Adam Massey loose it?
The real question is whether Adam will loose the almost guarantee of a seat he had. This slacker had it all rapped up, tricking the business community/developers into thinking he is one of them. But his total laziness cost him the Daily Camera endorsement. While he was a natural for the Camera endorsement, the paper likes to endorse a balance of slow growth planners and downtown businessmen, and Adam and Angelique are the only two on the ticket, Adam clearly blew the interview. If he hadn't, he would have gotten the endorsement.
If you actually meet Adam, you know he doesn't have the stuff, and the Camera obviously figured this out. For heavens sake, they endorsed Shaun Coleman, a nice guy, but clearly too young and inexperienced for the job, over Adam. No Camera endorsement might be enough to move Adam down to the 7-9 place in the race, thus possibly costing him the race.
Remember, the guy also has no campaign. There are barely any Adam yard signs out, there will probably not be a targeted literature drop, if there is indeed any literature drop for Adam. He does not appear to have the money to do a mailing, and its getting way late to put one together. Adam had not appeared at many forums, and he is not walking precincts. His campaign will essentially be newspaper adds, the BOC email list, and the Boulder Realtor email list. In my mind, this means that 20-40% of the voters will have no idea about Adam when they vote, though they will have plenty of info on the other top candidates. This is simply not enough, the Real Big Line is going to have to move Adam off of the top tier down to the competitive level.
If you actually meet Adam, you know he doesn't have the stuff, and the Camera obviously figured this out. For heavens sake, they endorsed Shaun Coleman, a nice guy, but clearly too young and inexperienced for the job, over Adam. No Camera endorsement might be enough to move Adam down to the 7-9 place in the race, thus possibly costing him the race.
Remember, the guy also has no campaign. There are barely any Adam yard signs out, there will probably not be a targeted literature drop, if there is indeed any literature drop for Adam. He does not appear to have the money to do a mailing, and its getting way late to put one together. Adam had not appeared at many forums, and he is not walking precincts. His campaign will essentially be newspaper adds, the BOC email list, and the Boulder Realtor email list. In my mind, this means that 20-40% of the voters will have no idea about Adam when they vote, though they will have plenty of info on the other top candidates. This is simply not enough, the Real Big Line is going to have to move Adam off of the top tier down to the competitive level.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Friday, October 5, 2007
The Real Bigline
This is how the race for Boulder City Council is going. Completely accurate predictions. Because only the horse race matters, not the policy.
THE REAL BIG LINE - Candidates are listed in the order they will finish.
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's blog to Larry Craig.
Ken Wilson (1-1) : Ken is doing well in the yard sign war. However, no mailings or literature yet, but its still early. This weekend, the BOC people will put up their four pack of yard signs, so with his broad support, by Monday he will be winning the yard sign war.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those Burrell Outdoor Coalition (BOC). Susan is winning the yard sign war in central and North Boulder. East Boulder and Martin Acres are, thankfully, devoid of even Susan's yard signs. When the BOC four pack hits this weekend, see them signs start to spread. No mailing to me as of yet.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Angelique has signs out. No robo call as of yet. Angie will do very well. Don't expect a lit drop from this business candidate. It will be mailings and robo calls.
Crystal Gray (1-1) : In a normal town, Crystal would finish first. But because Gray makes common sense decisions, BOC didn't endorse her. They prefer to back candidates that have no track record on anything. Would a real interest group endorse only candidates with no track record? They roll the dice and see if they get someone crazy enough to support their positions, i.e, (Suzy Ageton and Ollie!)
Crystal, Susan, and Ken will all benefit from the PBC/ Sierra Club lit drop. I have been told now that Crystal's dog died a couple of years ago, so that's why she didn't get the FI-DOS endorsement.
TWO YEAR SEAT: The FOLLOWING TWO will get a two year seat, they have enough support, but enough negative to keep them out of the four year seats.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : While Matt has support, he is disliked by people that have met him. But smart, smart, smart, in fact, smarter than the rest of council combined, minus Ken who is a scientist. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat and will only get a crappy two year seat. This will piss him off and he will resign. The Sierra Club endorsement will get him a limited mailing from that group, so it will help.
Adam Massey (6-1) : I have again rethought Adam. Adam might not hang on, let's see what type of work he doesn't do. While he is Lazy Adam Massey, the BOC endorsement will get him a two year seat. Thielin actually though Plan perfect Boulder County would endorse him. I say "Clueless!!", Adam never had a chance for that endorsement because (1) he is a slacker and (2) he is pro-growth and pro plus 55 foot height limit.
I'm going to vote for Adam, just to see the battle between him and Suzy Ageton. Without any big endorsements, he will not be able to do a lit drop. So he will either have to have money for mailings or organize his own volunteers, which will not happen. BOC probably does not have the resources to get its members to drop literature in more than few precincts, the city is big, and it takes lots of people. But biz community support should mean money for Robo calls and mailings.
THE RACE - THIS IS WHAT YOU, THE VOTER WILL DECIDE
You, the voter, have no control over the above six candidates winning. You will only decide who the seventh seat goes to. If Adam doesn't get money for a mailing, then he will move down into this group, and you, the voter, will have control over two of five council seats.
Lisa Morzel (10-1) : Lisa is number one for the seventh seat. Rob Smoke has pledged to vote her into office, just for the Lisa/Suzy A battle that will consume council. Lisa is a Real Environmentalists, Lisa is one, and Boulder has lots of them, ie. Sierra Club. Look for lots more signs and a lit drop coming soon.
Macon Cowles (11-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance. But its a crowded field, so Macon is just on the margin. Loosing to Richard Polk is not easy, but he did it. His voters are the same as Lisa's, most will choose Lisa.
Sorry Macon, in a different year he would win. Macon could pull this one out, and beat Lisa and Adam, if he decides to do some hard work, which means door knocking, and talking to as many people as possible. Relying on yard signs, forums, Thielin's stupid blog, and mailings only gets you eighth place. The last candidate to seriously walk was Sean McGrath, and he won. Why candidates don't do this I don't understand. If your Ken Wilson, you don't have to, right now everybody loves him (wait till 2011 Ken, when you don't get the BOC endorsement). But Macon would win if a couple thousand people met him at the door. Its too late though, this should have started in July.
FI-DOS really should have ensorsed Macon, I have been informed that Macon's dog bags its own poop, in its own colon.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool. Eugene will finish 9th. The wildcard here is whether the human service community is big enough to make up for the BOC people that will vote against Eugene.
Totally impossible. None of these candidates will win. None will get more than 1500 votes, except Susan Peterson, who will get 5000 to 6000 votes.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her. Plan Broomfield County endorsement meaningless without a good campaign.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who? Oh, I know this guy, he owns a computer, just like David Thielin. Cool!
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Who? He doesn have yards sings
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? He doesn't live in Broomfield, I was told, but he does stop at the Arby's when he gets the muchies. Nudge nudge.
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Republican. Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who?
Tom Riley (49-1) : Also owns a computer, and sends out emails.
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. I know this, because his myspace page is close to mine.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Snore ., . . there still more candidates, give me a break, none of the remaining people have the slightest clue, let's just stop here.
Susan Webel and her horse
The issues Webel raises about HCAs, and her lack of access to such land, is a red herring, and this argument merely plays into the hands of developers. Webel is simply exaggerating when she claims that land is being closed to her and her horse. With tens of thousand of acres available for her to play on, not just county land, but also city and federal lands, she can walk and hike and ride as much as she likes, in fact, she physically could never access all of the open public lands in the county if she spent every day of the year doing so. So what is her real agenda?
And the land wasn't bought just for your recreation missy. The vast majority of tax payers, surveys have shown, want Open Space to slow growth. If you acknowledged that this was one of the purpose of open space, then maybe you wouldn't seem like such a complainer. But its hard when you fail to face reality of why Open Space was created, and it is doubtful that your type ever supported the open space programs during its inception, that would be 1967. All of you who don't vote for open space taxes end up supporting to some extent, development of the land.
Remember, Open Space was never intended as a recreation program, it is merely a side benefit of the program, and environmental values also have to be considered. You didn't have access to the land before it was bought, so speaking of lost access is just "bs". So if you want the land to have houses on it, then vote against the tax. If you want to live in a Highlands Ranch type community, with no trails anywhere, then support Webel's argument.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
How to be cool.
Boulder is generally not cool, because its populated with older wealthy people who avoid the students by going to places like Rhumba and the St. Jule. That is not cool. Blogging is not cool, unless your Dailykos or Mydd, but run of the mill blogs like David Thielin's are not cool, because blogging it is pathetic.
My blog is cool because I call out Thielin for what he is, a libertarian, not a liberal. I would rather be doing something else, but someone has got to challenge the name-calling rightie Thielin for who he is.
If your're over 35, your not cool to anybody, unless your Clooney, and you would say not say "da bomb" instead of cool.
If you care so much about a city council election, it is certainly not cool.
So let's push it out a bit, try to be cool, and get a little present date cul-tura. Even though your aging and boring, listen to:
Lavender Diamond - Peace Love, etc.
http://myspace.com/lavenderdiamond
And get yourself a sweet ride:
http://www.cyclofiend.com/ssg/images/ssg106-43.jpg
My blog is cool because I call out Thielin for what he is, a libertarian, not a liberal. I would rather be doing something else, but someone has got to challenge the name-calling rightie Thielin for who he is.
If your're over 35, your not cool to anybody, unless your Clooney, and you would say not say "da bomb" instead of cool.
If you care so much about a city council election, it is certainly not cool.
So let's push it out a bit, try to be cool, and get a little present date cul-tura. Even though your aging and boring, listen to:
Lavender Diamond - Peace Love, etc.
http://myspace.com/lavenderdiamond
And get yourself a sweet ride:
http://www.cyclofiend.com/ssg/images/ssg106-43.jpg
David Thielin is not a liberal or a progressive.
David claims to speak for Boulder liberals, but you have to be one first. He's not a liberal, but a libertarian. In Boulder, being liberal means:
1. Being an environmentalist. Thielin doesn't believe in the precautionary principle, and claims that 98% of the people of Boulder agree with him. However, the precautionary principle is a bedrock of environmental science, supported by the Sierra Club and National Resources Defense Council. Prior to the rise of the BOC idiots, at least seven out of nine council members supported this principle (the dissenters being Burger Tom and Rich Lopez). The Sierra Club has just a bit more credibility on environmental issues than, say anybody. If you don't believe in the precautionary principle as it applies to the environment, then you are not a Boulder liberal. Example, David thinks Adam is a environmentalist because he rides a bike. Hello! Don't be stupid.
2. He thinks the free market should regulate itself. Hello! This is not being a liberal. Ever here of safety regulations?
3. He believes that individuals are responsible for their own fates. So if your Hispanic and poor and unable to get an equal opportunity, tough luck, its your fault.
4. He doesn't support Obama, Hillary, or Edwards. His views are pretty close to Ron Paul.
Anyone who calls himself a liberal, proclaims to speak for Boulder, yet is like outlined above, is a libertarian. And your certainly not a progressive. Mainly David is anti-intellectual.
1. Being an environmentalist. Thielin doesn't believe in the precautionary principle, and claims that 98% of the people of Boulder agree with him. However, the precautionary principle is a bedrock of environmental science, supported by the Sierra Club and National Resources Defense Council. Prior to the rise of the BOC idiots, at least seven out of nine council members supported this principle (the dissenters being Burger Tom and Rich Lopez). The Sierra Club has just a bit more credibility on environmental issues than, say anybody. If you don't believe in the precautionary principle as it applies to the environment, then you are not a Boulder liberal. Example, David thinks Adam is a environmentalist because he rides a bike. Hello! Don't be stupid.
2. He thinks the free market should regulate itself. Hello! This is not being a liberal. Ever here of safety regulations?
3. He believes that individuals are responsible for their own fates. So if your Hispanic and poor and unable to get an equal opportunity, tough luck, its your fault.
4. He doesn't support Obama, Hillary, or Edwards. His views are pretty close to Ron Paul.
Anyone who calls himself a liberal, proclaims to speak for Boulder, yet is like outlined above, is a libertarian. And your certainly not a progressive. Mainly David is anti-intellectual.
The Real Big Line - UPDATED FOR THURSDAY
As pointed out by my favorite uninformed blogger, there were many mistakes in my predictions, including grammatical, spelling, and incorrect political observations. So The Real Bigline has been updated and corrected. No more mean spiritedness, but just pure politics. Now with corrected odds of winning, because after all, in politics, its the horse race that matters.
THE REAL BIG LINE - Candidates are listed in the order they will finish.
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's blog to Larry Craig.
Ken Wilson (1-1) : Davis Thielin has this this one right, he will win. Winning the yard sign war.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever dude, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those reactionary jerks over at the Burrell Outdoor Coalition. (Buzz, you really are a XXXXXXXX loud and dramatic). She will be either one or two in the number of votes, or place third.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Ok, David is good. You go girl, your going to win. And we need a hottie to replace cute Robyn Bohannan. Plus, she is the only Boulder Tomorrow candidate, and those upstanding Boulder developers have got to get behind one candidate. The probably can't all vote for Adam because, not only has he well, he's never had a job. (Adam apparently has abaondoned his slow growth position.) Angelique likes them buildings, and she likes up over 55 feet, thank you mam. If you think the West End sucks now, just wait until Angelique gets them buildin's. Angie will place THIRD. Angelique has lots of yard signs .
Crystal Gray (1-1) : In a normal town, Crystal would finish first. But because Gray makes common sense decisions, BOC didn't endorse her. They prefer to back candidates that have no track record on BOC issues. They want to roll the dice and see if they get someone crazy enough to support their positions, i.e, (Suzy Ageton and Ollie!)
Crystal will not be the top vote getter, as earlier predicted, but will come in fourth. Susan and Ken will do better, because they got the Plan perfect Boulder County endorsement, as well as the Buzz Burrel endorsement from BOC. Well liked by everybody, and out in the community, and yard signs everywhere, except for Martin Acres, South Boulder and East Boulder, as well as North. OK, yard signs only in downtown. She owns three dogs, all of whom bite, so why FI-DOS didn't endorse her, what a bark.
TWO YEAR SEAT: The FOLLOWING TWO will get a two year seat, they have enough support, but enough negative to keep them out of the four year seats.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : Thielin has this one wrong, while Matt has support, he is disliked by people that have met him. But smart smart smart, in fact, smarter than Suzy Ageton. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat and will only get a crappy two year seat. This will piss him off and he will resign.
Adam Massey (6-1) : I have rethought Adam. While he is Lazy Adam Massey, the BOC endorsement, and their brain dead members, will get him a two year seat. Thielin actually though Plan perfect Boulder County would endorse him. I say "Clueless!!", Adam never had a chance for that endorsement because (1) he is a slacker and (2) he is pro-growth and pro plus 55 foot height limit. Adam on council will teach us the meaning of slacker arrogance. Adam knows more that you, he really does, but he won't tell you why he does, because frankly, your not smart enough to understand. Him on counsel will be a hoot; Suzy Ageton will actually scowl and hit his hand with a ruler when talks!
THE RACE - THIS IS WHAT YOU, THE VOTER WILL DECIDE
You, the voter, have no control over the above six candidates winning. You will only decide who the seventh seat goes to.
Lisa Morzel (10-1) : Lisa is number one for the seventh seat. She is well known, and thinks Suzy Ageton is "difficult". She's got me and Rob Smoke's vote because well, because she is difficult. While David Thielin doesn't like environmentalists, Lisa is one, and Boulder has lots of them, ie. Sierra Club.
Macon Cowles (11-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance. Loosing to Richard Polk is not easy, but he did it. His voters are the same as Lisa's, most will choose Lisa because of her better knowness. Sorry Macon, in a different year he would win. Macon could pull this one out, and beat Lisa and Adam, if he decides to do some hard work, which means door knocking, and talking to as many people as possible. Relying on yard signs, forums, Thielin's stupid blog, and mailings only gets you eighth place.
Macon should know that road biking doesn't count for BOC backing, it has to be a mountain bike. Buzz knows that if you don't run over 20 miles a day, your a wimp. And your dogs have to be fairly well behaved, i.e., poop is bagged in the dog's colon, to get the FI-DOS endorsement.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool. Eugene will finish 9th. The wildcard here is whether the human service community is big enough to make up for the BOC people that will vote against Eugene.
Totally impossible. None of these candidates will win.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her. Plan Broomfield County endorsement meaningless without a good campaign.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who? Oh, I know this guy, he owns a computer, just like David Thielin. Cool!
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Who? He doesn have yards sings
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? He doesn't live in Broomfield, I was told, but he does stop at the Arby's when he gets the muchies. Nudge nudge.
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Republican. Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who?
Tom Riley (49-1) : Also owns a computer, and sends out emails.
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. I know this, because his myspace page is close to mine.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Snore ., . . there still more candidates, give me a break, none of the remaining people have the slightest clue, let's just stop here.
THE REAL BIG LINE - Candidates are listed in the order they will finish.
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's blog to Larry Craig.
Ken Wilson (1-1) : Davis Thielin has this this one right, he will win. Winning the yard sign war.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever dude, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those reactionary jerks over at the Burrell Outdoor Coalition. (Buzz, you really are a XXXXXXXX loud and dramatic). She will be either one or two in the number of votes, or place third.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Ok, David is good. You go girl, your going to win. And we need a hottie to replace cute Robyn Bohannan. Plus, she is the only Boulder Tomorrow candidate, and those upstanding Boulder developers have got to get behind one candidate. The probably can't all vote for Adam because, not only has he well, he's never had a job. (Adam apparently has abaondoned his slow growth position.) Angelique likes them buildings, and she likes up over 55 feet, thank you mam. If you think the West End sucks now, just wait until Angelique gets them buildin's. Angie will place THIRD. Angelique has lots of yard signs .
Crystal Gray (1-1) : In a normal town, Crystal would finish first. But because Gray makes common sense decisions, BOC didn't endorse her. They prefer to back candidates that have no track record on BOC issues. They want to roll the dice and see if they get someone crazy enough to support their positions, i.e, (Suzy Ageton and Ollie!)
Crystal will not be the top vote getter, as earlier predicted, but will come in fourth. Susan and Ken will do better, because they got the Plan perfect Boulder County endorsement, as well as the Buzz Burrel endorsement from BOC. Well liked by everybody, and out in the community, and yard signs everywhere, except for Martin Acres, South Boulder and East Boulder, as well as North. OK, yard signs only in downtown. She owns three dogs, all of whom bite, so why FI-DOS didn't endorse her, what a bark.
TWO YEAR SEAT: The FOLLOWING TWO will get a two year seat, they have enough support, but enough negative to keep them out of the four year seats.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : Thielin has this one wrong, while Matt has support, he is disliked by people that have met him. But smart smart smart, in fact, smarter than Suzy Ageton. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat and will only get a crappy two year seat. This will piss him off and he will resign.
Adam Massey (6-1) : I have rethought Adam. While he is Lazy Adam Massey, the BOC endorsement, and their brain dead members, will get him a two year seat. Thielin actually though Plan perfect Boulder County would endorse him. I say "Clueless!!", Adam never had a chance for that endorsement because (1) he is a slacker and (2) he is pro-growth and pro plus 55 foot height limit. Adam on council will teach us the meaning of slacker arrogance. Adam knows more that you, he really does, but he won't tell you why he does, because frankly, your not smart enough to understand. Him on counsel will be a hoot; Suzy Ageton will actually scowl and hit his hand with a ruler when talks!
THE RACE - THIS IS WHAT YOU, THE VOTER WILL DECIDE
You, the voter, have no control over the above six candidates winning. You will only decide who the seventh seat goes to.
Lisa Morzel (10-1) : Lisa is number one for the seventh seat. She is well known, and thinks Suzy Ageton is "difficult". She's got me and Rob Smoke's vote because well, because she is difficult. While David Thielin doesn't like environmentalists, Lisa is one, and Boulder has lots of them, ie. Sierra Club.
Macon Cowles (11-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance. Loosing to Richard Polk is not easy, but he did it. His voters are the same as Lisa's, most will choose Lisa because of her better knowness. Sorry Macon, in a different year he would win. Macon could pull this one out, and beat Lisa and Adam, if he decides to do some hard work, which means door knocking, and talking to as many people as possible. Relying on yard signs, forums, Thielin's stupid blog, and mailings only gets you eighth place.
Macon should know that road biking doesn't count for BOC backing, it has to be a mountain bike. Buzz knows that if you don't run over 20 miles a day, your a wimp. And your dogs have to be fairly well behaved, i.e., poop is bagged in the dog's colon, to get the FI-DOS endorsement.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool. Eugene will finish 9th. The wildcard here is whether the human service community is big enough to make up for the BOC people that will vote against Eugene.
Totally impossible. None of these candidates will win.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her. Plan Broomfield County endorsement meaningless without a good campaign.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who? Oh, I know this guy, he owns a computer, just like David Thielin. Cool!
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Who? He doesn have yards sings
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? He doesn't live in Broomfield, I was told, but he does stop at the Arby's when he gets the muchies. Nudge nudge.
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Republican. Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who?
Tom Riley (49-1) : Also owns a computer, and sends out emails.
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. I know this, because his myspace page is close to mine.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Snore ., . . there still more candidates, give me a break, none of the remaining people have the slightest clue, let's just stop here.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
The Real Bigline - Corrected and Updated
As pointed out by my favorite uninformed blogger, there were many mistakes in my predictions, so The Real Bigline has been updated and corrected. No more mean spirtedness, but just pure politics. Now with corrected odds of winning, because after all, in politics, its the horserace that matters.
THE REAL BIG LINE - Candidates are listed in the order they will finish.
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's blog to Larry Craig.
Ken Wilson (1-1) : Davis Thielin has this this one right, he will win.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Ok, David is good. You go girl, your going to win. And we need a hottie to replace cute Robyn Bohannan. Plus, she is the only Boulder Tomorrow candidate, and those xxxxx upstanding developers have got to get behind one candidate. The probably can't all vote for Adam because, not only has he well, he's never had a job, but he is slow growth. Angelique likes them buildings, and she likes up over 55 feet, thank you mam. If you think the West End sucks now, just wait until Angelique gets them buildin's. Angie will place fourth.
Crystal Gray (1-1) : Correction, Crystal will not be the top vote getter, as earlier predicted. Susan and Ken will do better, because they got the Plan perfect Boulder County endorsement, as well as the Buzz Burrel endorsement (the Buzz vote, or BOC for those of us in the Know). Well liked by everybody, and out in the community, and yard signs everywhere, except for Martin Acres, South Boulder and East Boulder, as well as North. Ok yard signs only in downtown. She owns three dogs, all of whom bite, so why FI-DOS didn't endorse her, what a bark.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever dude, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those reactionary jerks over at the Burrell Outdoor Coalition. (Buzz, you really are a XXXXXXXX loud and dramatic). She will be either one or two in the number of votes, or place third.
TWO YEAR SEAT: The FOLLOWING TWO will get a two year seat, they have enough support, but enough negative to keep them out of the four year.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : Thielin has this one wrong, while Matt has support, he is disliked by people that have met him. But smart smart smart, in fact, smarter than Suzy Ageton. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat and will only get a crappy two year seat.
Adam Massey (6-1) : I have rethought Adam. While his Lazy Adam Massey, the BOC endorsement, and there hallow brain dead members, brain dead from dehydration from their running trips with Buzz, will get him a two year seat. Adam on council will teach us the meaning of slacker arrogance. Adam knows more that you, he really does, but he won't tell you. Actually, him on counsel will be a hoot; Suzy will actually hit his hand with a ruler when he answer a question wrong!
THE RACE - THIS IS WHAT YOU, THE VOTER WILL DECIDE
You, the voter, have no control over the above six candidates winning. You will only decide who the seventh seat goes to.
Lisa Morzel (10-1) : She is well known, and thinks Suzy Ageton is a xxxxx "complicated". She's got me and Rob Smoke's vote because well, because she is complicated. While David Thielin doesn't like environmentalists, (and incidently, I will explain in detail why David Thielin is not an environmentalist, but a pro-growther, and a dip, in a future post) she is the only real one running. Unfortunately, the nutjobs at RMAD (animal defense club) seal her campaign up with some bad ideas.
Macon Cowles (11-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance. Loosing to Richard Polk is not easy, but he did it. His voters are the same as Lisa's, and most will choose Lisa.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool.
Totally impossible.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her. Plan Broomfield County endorsement meaningless without a good campaign.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who? Oh, I know this guy, he owns a computer, just like David Thielin. Cool!
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Who? He doesn have yards sings
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? He doesn't live in Broomfield, I was told, but he does stop at the Arby's when he gets the muchies. Nudge nudge.
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Republican. Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who?
Tom Riley (49-1) : Also owns a computer, and sends out emails.
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. I know this, because his myspace page is close to mine.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Snore ., . . there still more candidates, give me a break, none of the remaining people have the slightest clue, let's just stop here.
THE REAL BIG LINE - Candidates are listed in the order they will finish.
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's blog to Larry Craig.
Ken Wilson (1-1) : Davis Thielin has this this one right, he will win.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Ok, David is good. You go girl, your going to win. And we need a hottie to replace cute Robyn Bohannan. Plus, she is the only Boulder Tomorrow candidate, and those xxxxx upstanding developers have got to get behind one candidate. The probably can't all vote for Adam because, not only has he well, he's never had a job, but he is slow growth. Angelique likes them buildings, and she likes up over 55 feet, thank you mam. If you think the West End sucks now, just wait until Angelique gets them buildin's. Angie will place fourth.
Crystal Gray (1-1) : Correction, Crystal will not be the top vote getter, as earlier predicted. Susan and Ken will do better, because they got the Plan perfect Boulder County endorsement, as well as the Buzz Burrel endorsement (the Buzz vote, or BOC for those of us in the Know). Well liked by everybody, and out in the community, and yard signs everywhere, except for Martin Acres, South Boulder and East Boulder, as well as North. Ok yard signs only in downtown. She owns three dogs, all of whom bite, so why FI-DOS didn't endorse her, what a bark.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever dude, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those reactionary jerks over at the Burrell Outdoor Coalition. (Buzz, you really are a XXXXXXXX loud and dramatic). She will be either one or two in the number of votes, or place third.
TWO YEAR SEAT: The FOLLOWING TWO will get a two year seat, they have enough support, but enough negative to keep them out of the four year.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : Thielin has this one wrong, while Matt has support, he is disliked by people that have met him. But smart smart smart, in fact, smarter than Suzy Ageton. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat and will only get a crappy two year seat.
Adam Massey (6-1) : I have rethought Adam. While his Lazy Adam Massey, the BOC endorsement, and there hallow brain dead members, brain dead from dehydration from their running trips with Buzz, will get him a two year seat. Adam on council will teach us the meaning of slacker arrogance. Adam knows more that you, he really does, but he won't tell you. Actually, him on counsel will be a hoot; Suzy will actually hit his hand with a ruler when he answer a question wrong!
THE RACE - THIS IS WHAT YOU, THE VOTER WILL DECIDE
You, the voter, have no control over the above six candidates winning. You will only decide who the seventh seat goes to.
Lisa Morzel (10-1) : She is well known, and thinks Suzy Ageton is a xxxxx "complicated". She's got me and Rob Smoke's vote because well, because she is complicated. While David Thielin doesn't like environmentalists, (and incidently, I will explain in detail why David Thielin is not an environmentalist, but a pro-growther, and a dip, in a future post) she is the only real one running. Unfortunately, the nutjobs at RMAD (animal defense club) seal her campaign up with some bad ideas.
Macon Cowles (11-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance. Loosing to Richard Polk is not easy, but he did it. His voters are the same as Lisa's, and most will choose Lisa.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool.
Totally impossible.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her. Plan Broomfield County endorsement meaningless without a good campaign.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who? Oh, I know this guy, he owns a computer, just like David Thielin. Cool!
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Who? He doesn have yards sings
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? He doesn't live in Broomfield, I was told, but he does stop at the Arby's when he gets the muchies. Nudge nudge.
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Republican. Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who?
Tom Riley (49-1) : Also owns a computer, and sends out emails.
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. I know this, because his myspace page is close to mine.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Snore ., . . there still more candidates, give me a break, none of the remaining people have the slightest clue, let's just stop here.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
The Real Big Line
Some think that how much presence you have on the Internet is an indication of who will win the Boulder City Council election. Those of us in the know know that its how much involvement in the community a candidate has that makes a difference on whether they get elected. Thus, I present,
THE REAL BIG LINE
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's endorsement of Ron Paul.
Ken Wilson (2-1) : Ok Thielin does know something about Boulder politics. This guy will win, oh, and no more liquor on the hill, ever. Unless your this tall.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Ok, David is good. You go girl, your going to win. And we need a hottie to replace cute Robyn Bohannan. Plus, she is the only Boulder Tomorrow candidate, and those fascists have got to get behind one candidate. They can't vote for Adam because, well, he's never had a job. More below.
Crystal Gray (1-1) : Crystal will be the top vote getter, either one or two. Well liked by everybody, long term resident, experienced, connected to community groups. She owns like three dogs, all of whom bite, so why FI-DOS didn't endorse her, what a bark.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever dude, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those reactionary jerks over at the Burrell Outdoor Coalition. (Buzz, you really are a pompass ass). She will be either one or two in the number of votes, or place third.
THE RACE: The remaining five people are competing for the three two year terms up. That means the two who loose will apply for planning board positions. Except for Matt, who will be writing more crappy columns.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : Thielin has this one wrong, while Matt has support, he is barely hanging on, the PBC endorsement should get him a two year seat. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat.
Lisa Morzel (3-1) : She is well known, and thinks Suzy A is a nosey b@tch. Got me and Rob Smoke's vote.
Macon Cowles (5-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool. At least lesbian women in town have the Walnut Cafe.
Adam Massey (6-1) : Lazy Adam Massey. Actually, him on counsel will be a hoot; Suzy will actually hit his hand with a ruler when he answer a question wrong! Slackers need a vote too! Will definitely win a two year seat, because the BOC fascists endorsed him, and frankly, they gots nobody else. Did I mention he is lazy? But he rides a mountain bike, now that's awesome. Or a pathetic qualification.
Very unlikely - Totally impossible.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who?
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Whom?
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? Don't you livein Broomfield?
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Has no constituency. He has no experience. Why do people think they can be on council without first being part of the community? Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who? See comments under Shawn Coleman.
Tom Riley (49-1) : A smart, thoughtful, articulate candidate, who thinks you can win elections by blogging. Meet your friggin neighbors dood.
Larry Quilling (61-1) : Who? Dude, apply for planning board first.
Eric Rutherford (60-1) : Who?
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. Bad move, move to Arvada, they like that there. MySpace is for those under 30, ie, not you. Rob will get less than 200 votes. I guarantee it.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Seth is also putting in a serious effort. Ok, if you say so. Seth is so boring, I'm going to forget the remaining candidates.
THE REAL BIG LINE
Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's endorsement of Ron Paul.
Ken Wilson (2-1) : Ok Thielin does know something about Boulder politics. This guy will win, oh, and no more liquor on the hill, ever. Unless your this tall.
Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Ok, David is good. You go girl, your going to win. And we need a hottie to replace cute Robyn Bohannan. Plus, she is the only Boulder Tomorrow candidate, and those fascists have got to get behind one candidate. They can't vote for Adam because, well, he's never had a job. More below.
Crystal Gray (1-1) : Crystal will be the top vote getter, either one or two. Well liked by everybody, long term resident, experienced, connected to community groups. She owns like three dogs, all of whom bite, so why FI-DOS didn't endorse her, what a bark.
Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever dude, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those reactionary jerks over at the Burrell Outdoor Coalition. (Buzz, you really are a pompass ass). She will be either one or two in the number of votes, or place third.
THE RACE: The remaining five people are competing for the three two year terms up. That means the two who loose will apply for planning board positions. Except for Matt, who will be writing more crappy columns.
Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : Thielin has this one wrong, while Matt has support, he is barely hanging on, the PBC endorsement should get him a two year seat. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat.
Lisa Morzel (3-1) : She is well known, and thinks Suzy A is a nosey b@tch. Got me and Rob Smoke's vote.
Macon Cowles (5-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance.
Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool. At least lesbian women in town have the Walnut Cafe.
Adam Massey (6-1) : Lazy Adam Massey. Actually, him on counsel will be a hoot; Suzy will actually hit his hand with a ruler when he answer a question wrong! Slackers need a vote too! Will definitely win a two year seat, because the BOC fascists endorsed him, and frankly, they gots nobody else. Did I mention he is lazy? But he rides a mountain bike, now that's awesome. Or a pathetic qualification.
Very unlikely - Totally impossible.
Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her.
Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who?
Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Whom?
Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? Don't you livein Broomfield?
Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Has no constituency. He has no experience. Why do people think they can be on council without first being part of the community? Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .
Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who? See comments under Shawn Coleman.
Tom Riley (49-1) : A smart, thoughtful, articulate candidate, who thinks you can win elections by blogging. Meet your friggin neighbors dood.
Larry Quilling (61-1) : Who? Dude, apply for planning board first.
Eric Rutherford (60-1) : Who?
Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. Bad move, move to Arvada, they like that there. MySpace is for those under 30, ie, not you. Rob will get less than 200 votes. I guarantee it.
Seth Brigham (75-1) : Seth is also putting in a serious effort. Ok, if you say so. Seth is so boring, I'm going to forget the remaining candidates.
David Thielin - George Bush of Liberals
David Thielin has a Boulder Blog, and pretends to be a liberal. Its pretty clear that he is a reactionary and not much of a liberal; much like your typical idiot on the right. He is more of a Ron Paul or Linden LaRouche than a George Bush, because David actually tries to think, unlike president Shrub. But David Thielin only operates on instinct, without any background on how Boulder became what it is or how its politics work. So in that respect, he is much like the prez.
Hypothesis One - David Thielen knows nothing about Boulder politics.
Because David is a relative new comer to Boulder, he knows little of the history of Boulder. David, do you know what the blue line is? If you don't your opinions are seriously misinformed.
The greatest human being on earth, CU professor Al Bartlett, will explain to you the blue line, and how Boulder came to be what it is. Unlike David, I have a job, so I cut and paste from various web pages.
"In the late 1950s Professor Robert McKelvey of Mathematics and Professor Bartlett would talk occasionally about the problems that were becoming apparent as Boulder's population was growing from the 1950 U.S. Census figure of 19,999.
"The City Planning Board approved the subdivision plan for a new subdivision on the slope of Flagstaff Mountain west of 6th Street. College Avenue and 6th Street were both paved, but west of 6th, College was a gravel road that climbed steeply up the slope and ended perhaps a hundred meters up the slope. The subdivision in question was west of the end of the gravel road and could be accessed only by driving up the steep gravel road. When the Planning Board approved the subdivision, they sent the plans to the Council. Council approved the subdivision . . .
"I remember at a meeting, Bob saying,"This proves that you can't trust the City Council." This seemed to support our feeling that the Council would not really make the hard decisions that were needed to protect the people of Boulder.
Since then, Boulder has adopted a policy of controlled urban expansion. In 1959, city voters approved the "Blue Line" city-charter amendment which restricted city water service to altitudes below 5750 feet, in an effort to protect the mountain backdrop from development. In 1967, city voters approved a dedicated sales tax for the acquisition of open space in an effort to contain urban sprawl. In 1970, Boulder created a "comprehensive plan" that would dictate future zoning, transportation, and urban-planning decisions. Hoping to preserve residents' views of the mountains, in 1972, the city enacted an ordinance limiting the height of newly constructed buildings. A Historic-Preservation Code was passed in 1974, and a residential-growth management ordinance (the Danish Plan) in 1976
Boulder is only the way it is because of these policies, beginning with the blue line. If you do not support these policies, you are not a Real Boulder Liberal.
What do we have without these policies? That's right, you have crappy little towns like Highlands Ranch, Arvada and Broomfield, places I wouldn't live because of the crappy traffic and ugly homes. God, thinking of Broomfield just makes me want to crap, can you believe that f##%ing events center they put up.
But David thinks these places are neat, because there business friendly, and offer abundant recreation opportunities. And of course, wonderful places like Broomfield are there because they don't follow the preservation principle.
So one of the things David Thielin supports is a new conference center, right next to our farmers market. Hello! If anyone thinks this city can design a nice building for that area, then take a look at the "beautiful" Boulder One plaza, a total disaster in terms of asthetics. A conference center would be a disaster for Boulder, i.e., ugly eyesore.
In Boulder, being as pro development as David is is called "reactionary."
Next: Why Suzy Ageton is the Pat Roberson of Boulder politics. (But then again, I don't want to pear into Rob Smoke's bedroom, so go at it Suzy).
And: Why the Boulder Outdoor Coalition is selling out the environmental movement.
Hypothesis One - David Thielen knows nothing about Boulder politics.
Because David is a relative new comer to Boulder, he knows little of the history of Boulder. David, do you know what the blue line is? If you don't your opinions are seriously misinformed.
The greatest human being on earth, CU professor Al Bartlett, will explain to you the blue line, and how Boulder came to be what it is. Unlike David, I have a job, so I cut and paste from various web pages.
"In the late 1950s Professor Robert McKelvey of Mathematics and Professor Bartlett would talk occasionally about the problems that were becoming apparent as Boulder's population was growing from the 1950 U.S. Census figure of 19,999.
"The City Planning Board approved the subdivision plan for a new subdivision on the slope of Flagstaff Mountain west of 6th Street. College Avenue and 6th Street were both paved, but west of 6th, College was a gravel road that climbed steeply up the slope and ended perhaps a hundred meters up the slope. The subdivision in question was west of the end of the gravel road and could be accessed only by driving up the steep gravel road. When the Planning Board approved the subdivision, they sent the plans to the Council. Council approved the subdivision . . .
"I remember at a meeting, Bob saying,"This proves that you can't trust the City Council." This seemed to support our feeling that the Council would not really make the hard decisions that were needed to protect the people of Boulder.
Since then, Boulder has adopted a policy of controlled urban expansion. In 1959, city voters approved the "Blue Line" city-charter amendment which restricted city water service to altitudes below 5750 feet, in an effort to protect the mountain backdrop from development. In 1967, city voters approved a dedicated sales tax for the acquisition of open space in an effort to contain urban sprawl. In 1970, Boulder created a "comprehensive plan" that would dictate future zoning, transportation, and urban-planning decisions. Hoping to preserve residents' views of the mountains, in 1972, the city enacted an ordinance limiting the height of newly constructed buildings. A Historic-Preservation Code was passed in 1974, and a residential-growth management ordinance (the Danish Plan) in 1976
Boulder is only the way it is because of these policies, beginning with the blue line. If you do not support these policies, you are not a Real Boulder Liberal.
What do we have without these policies? That's right, you have crappy little towns like Highlands Ranch, Arvada and Broomfield, places I wouldn't live because of the crappy traffic and ugly homes. God, thinking of Broomfield just makes me want to crap, can you believe that f##%ing events center they put up.
But David thinks these places are neat, because there business friendly, and offer abundant recreation opportunities. And of course, wonderful places like Broomfield are there because they don't follow the preservation principle.
So one of the things David Thielin supports is a new conference center, right next to our farmers market. Hello! If anyone thinks this city can design a nice building for that area, then take a look at the "beautiful" Boulder One plaza, a total disaster in terms of asthetics. A conference center would be a disaster for Boulder, i.e., ugly eyesore.
In Boulder, being as pro development as David is is called "reactionary."
Next: Why Suzy Ageton is the Pat Roberson of Boulder politics. (But then again, I don't want to pear into Rob Smoke's bedroom, so go at it Suzy).
And: Why the Boulder Outdoor Coalition is selling out the environmental movement.
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Susan Webel wants a trail around the east side of Baseline Lake, despite overwhelming scientific evidence that building the trail on the east side will hurt the bald eagles nesting on the east side. They will stop nesting there, which means fewer eagles. This is a fact that she either conveniently ignores, or more likely, will dig up false scientific evidence to dispute. Don't trust Susan Webel, in fact, Paul Danish wrote an excellent column for the paper some years ago explaining how she lied in testimony to the county commissioners.
Also be aware of BATCO, a self perpetuating organization, that probably is not a real organization, in the sense that it does not have an active membership, collect dues, file taxes, hold Board elections, or do things that a normal organization would do. There are probably not more than 12 active members. If your interested in hiking and the environment, join the Colorado Mountain Club, a real organization, that covers the entire state, with local chapters. They put on climbs and hikes, and have sound policies on the interaction between recreation and the environment.
Oh and Webel lives in Longmont. Why don't you clean up your own crappy community rather than tell us in Boulder what do to? Oh, that's because Longmont has no open space. Don't listen to Webel on Boulder policy.