The Real Bigline

This is how the race for Boulder City Council is going. Completely accurate predictions. Because only the horse race matters, not the policy.

THE REAL BIG LINE - Candidates are listed in the order they will finish.

Slam dunk - these candidates will win unless they are caught reading David Thielin's blog to Larry Craig.

Ken Wilson (1-1) : Ken is doing well in the yard sign war. However, no mailings or literature yet, but its still early. This weekend, the BOC people will put up their four pack of yard signs, so with his broad support, by Monday he will be winning the yard sign war.

Susan Osborne (2:1) : Susan has been around forever, she knows policy, and she has the endorsements of not only PLAN Boulder perfect County, but also those Burrell Outdoor Coalition (BOC). Susan is winning the yard sign war in central and North Boulder. East Boulder and Martin Acres are, thankfully, devoid of even Susan's yard signs. When the BOC four pack hits this weekend, see them signs start to spread. No mailing to me as of yet.

Angelique Espinoza (2-1) : Angelique has signs out. No robo call as of yet. Angie will do very well. Don't expect a lit drop from this business candidate. It will be mailings and robo calls.

Crystal Gray (1-1) : In a normal town, Crystal would finish first. But because Gray makes common sense decisions, BOC didn't endorse her. They prefer to back candidates that have no track record on anything. Would a real interest group endorse only candidates with no track record? They roll the dice and see if they get someone crazy enough to support their positions, i.e, (Suzy Ageton and Ollie!)

Crystal, Susan, and Ken will all benefit from the PBC/ Sierra Club lit drop. I have been told now that Crystal's dog died a couple of years ago, so that's why she didn't get the FI-DOS endorsement.

TWO YEAR SEAT: The FOLLOWING TWO will get a two year seat, they have enough support, but enough negative to keep them out of the four year seats.

Matthew Applebaum (5-1) : While Matt has support, he is disliked by people that have met him. But smart, smart, smart, in fact, smarter than the rest of council combined, minus Ken who is a scientist. However, he is disliked enough that he is out of the running for a four year seat and will only get a crappy two year seat. This will piss him off and he will resign. The Sierra Club endorsement will get him a limited mailing from that group, so it will help.

Adam Massey (6-1) : I have again rethought Adam. Adam might not hang on, let's see what type of work he doesn't do. While he is Lazy Adam Massey, the BOC endorsement will get him a two year seat. Thielin actually though Plan perfect Boulder County would endorse him. I say "Clueless!!", Adam never had a chance for that endorsement because (1) he is a slacker and (2) he is pro-growth and pro plus 55 foot height limit.

I'm going to vote for Adam, just to see the battle between him and Suzy Ageton. Without any big endorsements, he will not be able to do a lit drop. So he will either have to have money for mailings or organize his own volunteers, which will not happen. BOC probably does not have the resources to get its members to drop literature in more than few precincts, the city is big, and it takes lots of people. But biz community support should mean money for Robo calls and mailings.

THE RACE - THIS IS WHAT YOU, THE VOTER WILL DECIDE

You, the voter, have no control over the above six candidates winning. You will only decide who the seventh seat goes to. If Adam doesn't get money for a mailing, then he will move down into this group, and you, the voter, will have control over two of five council seats.

Lisa Morzel (10-1) : Lisa is number one for the seventh seat. Rob Smoke has pledged to vote her into office, just for the Lisa/Suzy A battle that will consume council. Lisa is a Real Environmentalists, Lisa is one, and Boulder has lots of them, ie. Sierra Club. Look for lots more signs and a lit drop coming soon.

Macon Cowles (11-1) : Barely lost to toke-a-Polk, so has a chance. But its a crowded field, so Macon is just on the margin. Loosing to Richard Polk is not easy, but he did it. His voters are the same as Lisa's, most will choose Lisa.

Sorry Macon, in a different year he would win. Macon could pull this one out, and beat Lisa and Adam, if he decides to do some hard work, which means door knocking, and talking to as many people as possible. Relying on yard signs, forums, Thielin's stupid blog, and mailings only gets you eighth place. The last candidate to seriously walk was Sean McGrath, and he won. Why candidates don't do this I don't understand. If your Ken Wilson, you don't have to, right now everybody loves him (wait till 2011 Ken, when you don't get the BOC endorsement). But Macon would win if a couple thousand people met him at the door. Its too late though, this should have started in July.
FI-DOS really should have ensorsed Macon, I have been informed that Macon's dog bags its own poop, in its own colon.

Eugene Pearson (10-1) : Gay in Boulder. Frankly, the gay scene in this town sucks; it appears all there is to do if your a gay man is run for office. (See Jared Polis). How you can stand us Eugene, I cannot fathom, we are not cool. Eugene will finish 9th. The wildcard here is whether the human service community is big enough to make up for the BOC people that will vote against Eugene.

Totally impossible. None of these candidates will win. None will get more than 1500 votes, except Susan Peterson, who will get 5000 to 6000 votes.

Susan Peterson (11-1) : Never heard of her. Plan Broomfield County endorsement meaningless without a good campaign.

Alan O'Hashi (19-1) : Who? Oh, I know this guy, he owns a computer, just like David Thielin. Cool!

Philip Hernandez (20-1) : Who? He doesn have yards sings

Philip Bradley (30-1) : Who? He doesn't live in Broomfield, I was told, but he does stop at the Arby's when he gets the muchies. Nudge nudge.

Shawn Coleman (99-1) : Young ambitious and only one of three minority candidates. Republican. Republican. Coleman will not win. Ahh, but in 2009 . . .

Kathryn Kramer (42-1) : Who?

Tom Riley (49-1) : Also owns a computer, and sends out emails.

Rob Smoke (70-1) : Oh, I know this guy. He tries to date women too young for him. I know this, because his myspace page is close to mine.

Seth Brigham (75-1) : Snore ., . . there still more candidates, give me a break, none of the remaining people have the slightest clue, let's just stop here.