The Real Bigline - Boulder City Council

Some Ballots have hit the voters' mailboxes yesterday. Here are the true odds of the candidates winning. Expect a very low turnout. It will take 10,000 to 11,000 votes to win a seat.

Susan Osborne (1:1) : Endorsed by all papers and the environmental groups, as well as BOC. Will be the top vote getter. Thielin ignores on his blog the power of the women's vote in Boulder, so Susan will beat out Wilson on this basis alone. Susan will get 15,000 -17,500 votes.

Crystal Gray (2-1) : Incumbent, all three newspapers, PB endorsement, Sierra Club endorsement. An incumbent at the city council level does not have to raise tons of money to do very well. She is personally known by several thousand voters, will benefit from the Sierra Club mailing, will benefit from the Plan B/Sierra Club literature drop, her name in all of the voter guides as endorsed, Democratic women power behind her. Zero chance she will not get a four year seat. David Thielin's blog has her doing poorly, but that is just silly. She printed her yard signs and literature, has ad buys in the paper; that's all you need. The only votes she will not get are those people actually voting against her. For Angie and Susan, even Shawn and Macon, when they first ran, as they are running now, voters have to actually be educated about who they are and the campaign needs to boost name recognition. This doesn't apply to Crystal, you know what your going to get with her, popular Boulder views and a dog. Crystal will get 15,000 to 17,000 votes.

Angelique Espinoza (3-1) : Angelique got a Daily Camera, Boulder Weekly & Sierra Club. endorsement. She won the Givem Hell Harry award last year from the Democrats, and though she is a pro-growther, this will be offset by the Sierra Club and Democratic women's vote. Angelique will be the development, ethnic, star of counsel, which will annoy Suzy to no end. Angie will basically kill Suzy's star on the council. Angie also benefits from the massive Sierra Club literature drop and membership mailing. However, her arrogant attitude will cost her the top finish. Angie will get 15,000 votes.

Ken Wilson (4-1) Will likely win a four year term. However, possibility of a slip to either Appleseed or Morzel, who are better known. No environmental enemies yet and squishy on the VMP means he could finish ahead of Crystal. But, university hill business people and landlords hate him, which will cost him 300-500 votes, putting him in 4th. Ken will get 14,000 votes.

TWO YEAR SEATS Remaining candidates are likely to compete for a two year seat.

Lisa Morzel (6-1): Lisa probably will beat Matt, simply because negatives are not as high as Matt's. Will the conservatives rally around Coleman, Massey and Rutherford. Doubtful, its a bit to late for these three to get a campaign going. If they do, we will have a very different city
ie, 55 foot building in all of downtown, stupid convention center, etc. Morzel has the basic liberal college town values that people here like. Her campaign is massive, and that gets you 9,000 - 11,000 votes.

Macon Cowles (28-1) : "Running as exactly what PLAN Boulder wants and that could be enough (which is a sorry statement about how people can vote here)." This is what David says, and I say, move to Highlands Ranch or Broomfield. People with the values of Thielin live in those places, which suck, and not here. Macon's strong campaign could get him more votes than last time, and the field is much weaker than when he last ran. He didn't get the Camera endorsement last time, and he needed it this time for a sure win, so he is on the edge. BOC and FI-DOS people will vote against him, again, no mountain bike and stinky dogs. Still, he should be able to get 1,000 more votes than last time. Macon will get 7,000 to 9,000 votes. But is that enough?

Matthew Applebaum (6-1) : Matt clearly has support and high positives (as well as high negatives). Matt knows he is the most qualified (and he is in some ways) and that both helps & hurts him some. He was a long shot to get a PLAN Boulder & BOC endorsement because he is a pro-growther to some extend, wanting to restock our city with new high density buildings, and he is not a nutjob, so he is not in line with BOC. Matt will get a literature drop from Sierra Club, big advantage to him, which may get him into the top 7. Matt will be in the 9,000 to 10,500 vote range. If the Rockies do well in the series, people may vote against Matt, because the feel good attitude is just not what Appleseed brings to the table.

Eugene Pearson (9-1) : PLAN Boulder and support among the human services community puts him up there. This is better than the BOC endorsement that Adam got, because it comes with a lit drop. But still young, in a city council election, young costs you, because you have not been around long enough for your neighbors to know you. Eugene will get 7,000 to 10,000 votes.

Adam Massey (9-1) : Adam is basically doing nothing. B.O.C. endorsement alone will not do the job because such endorsement only comes with an email, not a literature drop. Remember, Polk barely beat Macon, and he spent tons of money, got the Camera endorsement, and worked hard. And Polk only won by 1,000 votes. Adam f-ed up the Boulder Show for heaven's sake. Adam will get 8,000 to 9,000 votes, so right on the edge of winning.

Eric Rutherford (8-1) : Realtor money goes his way, so this is always a factor. But as Polk proved in his first run, developer money without a campaign or a reputation in the community gets you 7,000 votes. Rutherford will get 8 or 9, but still finish behind Pearson, even if Pearson does not get a seat.

Shawn Coleman (10-1) : Thielin's thinking Shawn will get this shows how little he knows about Boulder politics. I'll keep his odds at 10-1 given the Camera endorsement, which is worth at least 2,000 votes to Sean. But remember, you need 8,000 to 10,000 to win, he just doesn't have that kind of base to get there, and the paper/developer endorsement alone does not get you there. According to Thielin's blog "he seems to be doing everything right and he impresses virtually everyone he talks to (aside from the occasional wingnut)." The problem is that people seem to think Shawn is a little of a nut, why is someone so young so interested in city issues? is what they are thinking. While the other candidates and groups are nice to him, because he is such a hard worker, they are not going to vote for him. No endorsements from important groups, no literature drops, no money, he will finish well out of the running. And no campaign or door walking means unless you read the paper or go to a forum, you have no idea who he is. And then run again in 2009. With developer money, he would have had a chance, but the developers don't count on him yet. Coleman will get 4,000 votes.

Alan O'Hashi (15-1) : "Alan got a very strong endorsement from the Boulder Weekly and this puts his impressive record in front of everyone. And he has a very strong base of support." David, Alan does not have a strong base of support. Being well known and liked in the community is not a strong base of support. "Alan is the most likely vote for people tired of the same old candidates." Macon has way more support than Alan, and all of the endorsements, so this is a distinct disadvantage for Alan. Alan though, if he gets some help, ie, therapy, could be a future possibility. Alan will get 3,500 votes.

Rob Smoke (15-1) : Rob is definitely putting in a serious effort. But so what? Rob is the fringe candidate that everyone knows, but Boulder is not a fringe town. It is a nice safe middle class yuppie place. Sure, we all agree with Rob's views, but we wouldn't want to have to have dinner with him. So like Grateful Fred and Evan Ravitz, Smoke will go down. 1,500 votes.

Larry Quilling (15-1) : "Oh wow - endorsement from the Daily and an honorable mention from the Weekly. Larry is now definitely in play. He's also a Fairview parent and considered a nice guy by every other parent there that knows him - that is worth votes." Quoting from Thielin's blog. Its not worth enough votes, Fairview parents is just too small a group for any real meaning (how many parents are there that vote, probably not even 1,000). Larry may get 1000 votes off of this, but no campaign means he can't capitalize on the Daily endorsement. One paper endorsement is diluted by endorsements by other groups and papers, so few voters will really even consider Larry. Larry will get 1,500 votes.

Philip Hernandez (31-1) : "Philip is working at it and his fundraising remains impressive. No newspaper endorsements - that probably ends it for Phil." Thielin is correct. 1,000 to 3,000 votes.

Susan Peterson (41-1) : Got the PLAN Boulder endorsement. But she missed one forum and has missed a number of the Camera blogs. She may be hoping to coast in on that endorsement and that is a questionable approach. No newspaper endorsements - that probably ends it for Susan. Plan B literature drop, even with her poor piece, will get her 1,500 to 3,500 votes. Lisa and Macon and Matt voters will probably not vote for her in order to target their vote.

Kathryn Kramer (49-1) :Tom Riley (49-1) :Philip Bradley (60-1) :Seth Brigham (75-1) :Nabil Karkamaz (95-1) : Andrew Harrison (100-1) . None of these candidates will get more than the various Colorado Rockies write ins the clerk is going to have to deal with.